Озоновые аномалии 2025–2026

Ретроспективная проверка замороженной TCOscope · 9 октября 2026 · T+1…T+5

14 эпизодов · 128 инициализаций · 5 прогнозных систем · 5 источников наблюдений

TCOscope, CAMS gtco3, GFS TOZNE, persistence и сохранённая месячная климатология. Наблюдения: TROPOMI, OMPS, OMI, Brewer и Dobson. Все численные сравнения внутри одного источника используют одинаковые наблюдения для пяти прогнозов.

Главный результат на OMPS: RMSE, DU
system year kind TCOscope CAMS GFS Persistence Climatology
2025 antarctic_hole 28.26 37.50 37.41 53.62 58.52
2025 high_ozone 27.80 38.33 36.25 53.53 72.23
2025 nh_low_ozone 31.43 23.58 27.83 46.06 52.61
2025 rapid_rise 38.19 47.49 46.68 45.00 45.61
2026 antarctic_hole 18.94 22.41 23.90 40.62 38.94
2026 high_ozone 22.19 35.14 33.91 53.99 84.23
2026 rapid_rise 23.42 37.65 37.19 51.35 83.08

В этой выборке TCOscope точнее CAMS и GFS на антарктической дыре, высоком ОСО и суточных подъёмах. На северном низком ОСО 2025 модель уступает обоим. Это разные типы ошибок, поэтому единый средний score скрыл бы слабое место.

Статус результата. Это исследовательская ретроспектива. 2025 участвовал в выборе checkpoint; 2026 уже анализировался. История OFFL содержит заполнение пропусков, которое может использовать будущие дни. Единый реальный срок доступности входов и прогнозов не доказан. Сравнение относится к сохранённому checkpoint и выбранным эпизодам; это не оценка всей совокупности экстремумов.

Методика и ограничения

Определения и сведения об источниках: NASA: порог и область озоновой дыры; NASA: северные мини-дыры; CAMS: обновление 2026.

Покрытие наблюдениями

coverage.png

Для следующих типов не найдено подходящего эпизода по зафиксированным критериям. Это не доказательство отсутствия любых аномалий:

year kind status largest_observed_candidate_km2
2026 nh_low_ozone no_event_meeting_frozen_criteria 40415.08

Scores по годам и типам эпизодов

DU; все горизонты вместе. Skill = 1 − RMSE / RMSE baseline. Положительный skill означает меньшую ошибку. Пустая строка прибора означает отсутствие данных, а не нулевую ошибку.

year kind source system n_dates rmse mae bias centered_rmse pearson anomaly_correlation skill_persistence skill_climatology
2025 antarctic_hole Brewer CAMS 14 15.90 12.16 -8.86 13.20 0.97 0.97 0.70 0.70
2025 antarctic_hole Brewer Climatology 14 53.80 40.12 -11.77 52.49 0.39 — -0.01 0.00
2025 antarctic_hole Brewer GFS 14 16.36 12.89 2.21 16.21 0.96 0.96 0.69 0.70
2025 antarctic_hole Brewer Persistence 14 53.23 37.04 -0.38 53.23 0.55 0.43 0.00 0.01
2025 antarctic_hole Brewer TCOscope 14 15.29 12.30 -10.30 11.30 0.98 0.98 0.71 0.72
2025 antarctic_hole Dobson CAMS 14 31.42 21.26 -3.67 31.20 0.94 0.73 0.43 0.36
2025 antarctic_hole Dobson Climatology 14 49.35 41.29 -23.42 43.43 0.87 — 0.10 0.00
2025 antarctic_hole Dobson GFS 14 31.57 21.59 0.97 31.55 0.93 0.72 0.43 0.36
2025 antarctic_hole Dobson Persistence 14 54.90 39.05 6.95 54.46 0.82 0.19 0.00 -0.11
2025 antarctic_hole Dobson TCOscope 14 22.83 15.27 -0.38 22.82 0.97 0.85 0.58 0.54
2025 antarctic_hole OMI CAMS 14 46.58 33.26 -5.81 46.21 0.86 0.65 0.19 0.24
2025 antarctic_hole OMI Climatology 14 61.52 47.07 -22.34 57.33 0.76 — -0.07 0.00
2025 antarctic_hole OMI GFS 14 46.39 33.67 0.72 46.39 0.86 0.63 0.20 0.25
2025 antarctic_hole OMI Persistence 14 57.65 41.97 3.95 57.52 0.80 0.44 0.00 0.06
2025 antarctic_hole OMI TCOscope 14 37.06 26.60 -1.74 37.02 0.91 0.77 0.36 0.40
2025 antarctic_hole OMPS CAMS 14 37.50 26.29 -5.97 37.03 0.90 0.75 0.30 0.36
2025 antarctic_hole OMPS Climatology 14 58.52 44.37 -21.26 54.53 0.77 — -0.09 0.00
2025 antarctic_hole OMPS GFS 14 37.41 26.65 0.17 37.41 0.90 0.74 0.30 0.36
2025 antarctic_hole OMPS Persistence 14 53.62 38.88 4.53 53.43 0.81 0.47 0.00 0.08
2025 antarctic_hole OMPS TCOscope 14 28.26 19.38 -1.87 28.19 0.94 0.86 0.47 0.52
2025 antarctic_hole TROPOMI CAMS 14 25.67 19.17 -10.32 23.50 0.96 0.90 0.50 0.56
2025 antarctic_hole TROPOMI Climatology 14 58.94 45.92 -26.45 52.67 0.80 — -0.14 0.00
2025 antarctic_hole TROPOMI GFS 14 26.17 19.33 -4.06 25.85 0.96 0.87 0.49 0.56
2025 antarctic_hole TROPOMI Persistence 14 51.69 36.98 -0.22 51.69 0.82 0.48 0.00 0.12
2025 antarctic_hole TROPOMI TCOscope 14 15.86 12.22 -5.99 14.69 0.99 0.96 0.69 0.73
2025 high_ozone Brewer CAMS 7 30.20 22.63 -14.24 26.64 0.66 0.66 0.41 0.50
2025 high_ozone Brewer Climatology 7 60.50 51.23 -51.23 32.20 0.10 — -0.18 0.00
2025 high_ozone Brewer GFS 7 29.88 22.02 -11.77 27.47 0.60 0.60 0.42 0.51
2025 high_ozone Brewer Persistence 7 51.21 40.51 -24.54 44.95 0.10 0.10 0.00 0.15
2025 high_ozone Brewer TCOscope 7 22.75 16.93 -11.74 19.48 0.80 0.80 0.56 0.62
2025 high_ozone Dobson CAMS 7 30.15 22.25 -10.17 28.38 0.73 0.73 0.43 0.49
2025 high_ozone Dobson Climatology 7 59.32 47.29 -43.45 40.38 0.10 — -0.13 0.00
2025 high_ozone Dobson GFS 7 28.68 20.51 -6.97 27.82 0.72 0.73 0.45 0.52
2025 high_ozone Dobson Persistence 7 52.62 41.12 -25.41 46.07 0.30 0.27 0.00 0.11
2025 high_ozone Dobson TCOscope 7 27.29 21.55 -4.03 26.99 0.75 0.75 0.48 0.54
2025 high_ozone OMI CAMS 14 43.53 33.57 -15.71 40.60 0.61 0.54 0.21 0.42
2025 high_ozone OMI Climatology 14 74.50 61.24 -59.93 44.26 0.39 — -0.35 0.00
2025 high_ozone OMI GFS 14 40.90 31.16 -10.99 39.39 0.63 0.55 0.26 0.45
2025 high_ozone OMI Persistence 14 55.09 44.21 -26.68 48.20 0.45 0.37 0.00 0.26
2025 high_ozone OMI TCOscope 14 33.84 25.63 -4.00 33.60 0.73 0.66 0.39 0.55
2025 high_ozone OMPS CAMS 14 38.33 29.09 -17.43 34.14 0.71 0.62 0.28 0.47
2025 high_ozone OMPS Climatology 14 72.23 61.64 -60.99 38.70 0.52 — -0.35 0.00
2025 high_ozone OMPS GFS 14 36.25 27.00 -12.95 33.86 0.71 0.61 0.32 0.50
2025 high_ozone OMPS Persistence 14 53.53 42.19 -28.41 45.37 0.49 0.36 0.00 0.26
2025 high_ozone OMPS TCOscope 14 27.80 19.67 -6.48 27.03 0.81 0.74 0.48 0.62
2025 high_ozone TROPOMI CAMS 14 29.05 22.58 -17.29 23.35 0.88 0.85 0.42 0.63
2025 high_ozone TROPOMI Climatology 14 78.12 65.26 -64.31 44.35 0.39 — -0.57 0.00
2025 high_ozone TROPOMI GFS 14 26.82 20.73 -12.75 23.59 0.87 0.85 0.46 0.66
2025 high_ozone TROPOMI Persistence 14 49.72 39.09 -27.00 41.75 0.61 0.57 0.00 0.36
2025 high_ozone TROPOMI TCOscope 14 18.99 14.75 -6.09 17.99 0.93 0.91 0.62 0.76
2025 nh_low_ozone Brewer CAMS 7 30.09 26.73 -14.31 26.46 0.33 0.33 0.17 0.56
2025 nh_low_ozone Brewer Climatology 7 68.28 63.57 63.57 24.92 — — -0.89 0.00
2025 nh_low_ozone Brewer GFS 7 24.20 20.35 -5.04 23.67 0.47 0.47 0.33 0.65
2025 nh_low_ozone Brewer Persistence 7 36.18 30.20 -8.97 35.05 -0.12 -0.12 0.00 0.47
2025 nh_low_ozone Brewer TCOscope 7 21.05 17.63 7.42 19.70 0.61 0.61 0.42 0.69
2025 nh_low_ozone Dobson CAMS 7 24.45 20.08 -7.60 23.24 0.49 0.49 0.30 0.67
2025 nh_low_ozone Dobson Climatology 7 74.62 70.28 70.28 25.07 — — -1.13 0.00
2025 nh_low_ozone Dobson GFS 7 21.65 17.11 1.68 21.59 0.56 0.56 0.38 0.71
2025 nh_low_ozone Dobson Persistence 7 35.06 29.73 -2.26 34.98 -0.11 -0.11 0.00 0.53
2025 nh_low_ozone Dobson TCOscope 7 24.88 21.24 14.15 20.46 0.58 0.58 0.29 0.67
2025 nh_low_ozone OMI CAMS 14 28.76 21.50 5.37 28.25 0.46 0.77 0.39 0.52
2025 nh_low_ozone OMI Climatology 14 60.04 43.09 41.12 43.74 0.29 — -0.28 0.00
2025 nh_low_ozone OMI GFS 14 33.24 23.72 12.64 30.74 0.42 0.71 0.29 0.45
2025 nh_low_ozone OMI Persistence 14 46.81 37.70 28.04 37.48 0.18 0.67 0.00 0.22
2025 nh_low_ozone OMI TCOscope 14 36.21 28.26 24.41 26.75 0.54 0.79 0.23 0.40
2025 nh_low_ozone OMPS CAMS 14 23.58 16.11 3.15 23.37 0.59 0.82 0.49 0.55
2025 nh_low_ozone OMPS Climatology 14 52.61 36.87 33.87 40.26 0.28 — -0.14 0.00
2025 nh_low_ozone OMPS GFS 14 27.83 18.11 9.33 26.22 0.52 0.76 0.40 0.47
2025 nh_low_ozone OMPS Persistence 14 46.06 36.45 27.55 36.92 0.16 0.64 0.00 0.12
2025 nh_low_ozone OMPS TCOscope 14 31.43 23.69 21.53 22.90 0.63 0.82 0.32 0.40
2025 nh_low_ozone TROPOMI CAMS 11 23.52 17.79 -4.67 23.05 0.77 0.85 0.45 0.65
2025 nh_low_ozone TROPOMI Climatology 11 68.11 54.41 51.80 44.22 0.40 — -0.60 0.00
2025 nh_low_ozone TROPOMI GFS 11 27.59 20.88 8.13 26.37 0.72 0.80 0.35 0.59
2025 nh_low_ozone TROPOMI Persistence 11 42.66 34.08 16.96 39.14 0.38 0.67 0.00 0.37
2025 nh_low_ozone TROPOMI TCOscope 11 27.78 21.98 17.99 21.17 0.80 0.88 0.35 0.59
2025 rapid_rise Brewer CAMS 7 35.23 27.84 -12.65 32.88 0.48 0.53 -0.02 0.07
2025 rapid_rise Brewer Climatology 7 37.71 29.64 -25.01 28.22 0.46 — -0.09 0.00
2025 rapid_rise Brewer GFS 7 31.85 25.71 -8.47 30.70 0.49 0.49 0.08 0.16
2025 rapid_rise Brewer Persistence 7 34.57 24.66 -12.97 32.04 0.30 0.10 0.00 0.08
2025 rapid_rise Brewer TCOscope 7 20.44 13.83 -5.76 19.61 0.78 0.76 0.41 0.46
2025 rapid_rise Dobson CAMS 1 43.70 37.28 37.28 22.81 — — -0.11 -0.36
2025 rapid_rise Dobson Climatology 1 32.18 32.18 -32.18 0.00 — — 0.18 0.00
2025 rapid_rise Dobson GFS 1 47.14 42.90 42.90 19.54 — — -0.20 -0.46
2025 rapid_rise Dobson Persistence 1 39.39 29.63 6.44 38.86 — — 0.00 -0.22
2025 rapid_rise Dobson TCOscope 1 7.73 6.67 5.45 5.48 — — 0.80 0.76
2025 rapid_rise OMI CAMS 14 47.59 35.60 -2.93 47.50 0.53 0.21 -0.02 -0.10
2025 rapid_rise OMI Climatology 14 43.24 33.14 -18.43 39.12 0.60 — 0.07 0.00
2025 rapid_rise OMI GFS 14 47.03 35.51 0.58 47.03 0.54 0.17 -0.01 -0.09
2025 rapid_rise OMI Persistence 14 46.53 35.66 -4.59 46.30 0.53 0.22 0.00 -0.08
2025 rapid_rise OMI TCOscope 14 42.15 31.66 5.40 41.80 0.63 0.35 0.09 0.03
2025 rapid_rise OMPS CAMS 14 47.49 33.58 -5.04 47.22 0.56 0.26 -0.06 -0.04
2025 rapid_rise OMPS Climatology 14 45.61 33.79 -21.90 40.01 0.62 — -0.01 0.00
2025 rapid_rise OMPS GFS 14 46.68 33.48 -1.98 46.64 0.57 0.23 -0.04 -0.02
2025 rapid_rise OMPS Persistence 14 45.00 33.66 -7.49 44.37 0.59 0.29 0.00 0.01
2025 rapid_rise OMPS TCOscope 14 38.19 26.37 1.58 38.16 0.70 0.46 0.15 0.16
2025 rapid_rise TROPOMI CAMS 14 36.28 26.34 -9.10 35.12 0.76 0.57 0.21 0.21
2025 rapid_rise TROPOMI Climatology 14 46.16 34.36 -26.21 38.00 0.65 — -0.00 0.00
2025 rapid_rise TROPOMI GFS 14 34.05 24.85 -6.03 33.52 0.78 0.58 0.26 0.26
2025 rapid_rise TROPOMI Persistence 14 45.96 34.15 -11.77 44.42 0.58 0.24 0.00 0.00
2025 rapid_rise TROPOMI TCOscope 14 18.24 12.99 -2.67 18.05 0.93 0.88 0.60 0.60
2026 antarctic_hole Dobson CAMS 7 32.04 24.97 5.02 31.65 0.68 0.71 0.40 0.25
2026 antarctic_hole Dobson Climatology 7 42.77 35.50 16.28 39.55 0.16 — 0.19 0.00
2026 antarctic_hole Dobson GFS 7 30.05 23.93 7.61 29.07 0.70 0.72 0.43 0.30
2026 antarctic_hole Dobson Persistence 7 53.00 43.58 16.50 50.37 -0.06 0.11 0.00 -0.24
2026 antarctic_hole Dobson TCOscope 7 21.64 17.14 7.75 20.20 0.85 0.86 0.59 0.49
2026 antarctic_hole OMPS CAMS 14 22.41 16.77 -0.98 22.39 0.92 0.78 0.45 0.42
2026 antarctic_hole OMPS Climatology 14 38.94 31.59 19.51 33.70 0.81 — 0.04 0.00
2026 antarctic_hole OMPS GFS 14 23.90 18.61 5.17 23.33 0.91 0.75 0.41 0.39
2026 antarctic_hole OMPS Persistence 14 40.62 31.55 7.35 39.95 0.76 0.33 0.00 -0.04
2026 antarctic_hole OMPS TCOscope 14 18.94 14.75 5.96 17.98 0.95 0.85 0.53 0.51
2026 antarctic_hole TROPOMI CAMS 14 23.02 17.45 -6.86 21.97 0.94 0.79 0.41 0.35
2026 antarctic_hole TROPOMI Climatology 14 35.37 28.26 11.83 33.34 0.84 — 0.09 0.00
2026 antarctic_hole TROPOMI GFS 14 24.07 18.71 -0.53 24.07 0.93 0.74 0.38 0.32
2026 antarctic_hole TROPOMI Persistence 14 38.93 29.87 0.58 38.93 0.79 0.35 0.00 -0.10
2026 antarctic_hole TROPOMI TCOscope 14 15.25 12.01 -1.10 15.21 0.97 0.89 0.61 0.57
2026 high_ozone Brewer CAMS 7 42.71 30.00 -15.00 39.99 0.70 0.70 0.29 0.38
2026 high_ozone Brewer Climatology 7 68.56 50.92 -45.11 51.63 0.14 — -0.14 0.00
2026 high_ozone Brewer GFS 7 38.90 27.50 -10.12 37.56 0.72 0.72 0.35 0.43
2026 high_ozone Brewer Persistence 7 59.90 43.84 -8.81 59.25 0.32 0.31 0.00 0.13
2026 high_ozone Brewer TCOscope 7 24.41 17.67 -5.40 23.80 0.89 0.89 0.59 0.64
2026 high_ozone Dobson CAMS 7 36.14 26.15 -13.25 33.62 0.67 0.66 0.24 0.57
2026 high_ozone Dobson Climatology 7 83.65 76.04 -76.04 34.86 0.19 — -0.76 0.00
2026 high_ozone Dobson GFS 7 35.82 26.01 -7.86 34.95 0.61 0.61 0.24 0.57
2026 high_ozone Dobson Persistence 7 47.43 38.22 -1.51 47.41 0.23 0.22 0.00 0.43
2026 high_ozone Dobson TCOscope 7 24.85 18.61 -7.48 23.70 0.80 0.80 0.48 0.70
2026 high_ozone OMI CAMS 14 54.45 41.47 -3.20 54.35 0.56 0.44 0.00 0.33
2026 high_ozone OMI Climatology 14 81.45 68.27 -63.44 51.08 0.62 — -0.49 0.00
2026 high_ozone OMI GFS 14 52.92 39.99 5.13 52.67 0.59 0.48 0.03 0.35
2026 high_ozone OMI Persistence 14 54.51 42.31 4.21 54.35 0.53 0.40 0.00 0.33
2026 high_ozone OMI TCOscope 14 44.58 33.20 5.64 44.22 0.68 0.58 0.18 0.45
2026 high_ozone OMPS CAMS 14 35.14 25.67 -7.22 34.39 0.84 0.80 0.35 0.58
2026 high_ozone OMPS Climatology 14 84.23 70.76 -64.53 54.13 0.63 — -0.56 0.00
2026 high_ozone OMPS GFS 14 33.91 24.96 0.94 33.90 0.84 0.80 0.37 0.60
2026 high_ozone OMPS Persistence 14 53.99 41.59 -0.24 53.99 0.57 0.46 0.00 0.36
2026 high_ozone OMPS TCOscope 14 22.19 17.17 2.00 22.10 0.93 0.91 0.59 0.74
2026 high_ozone TROPOMI CAMS 14 36.99 27.41 -12.96 34.64 0.83 0.78 0.31 0.58
2026 high_ozone TROPOMI Climatology 14 87.91 74.89 -71.57 51.05 0.60 — -0.65 0.00
2026 high_ozone TROPOMI GFS 14 35.09 25.69 -4.64 34.78 0.83 0.78 0.34 0.60
2026 high_ozone TROPOMI Persistence 14 53.22 40.53 -6.45 52.83 0.56 0.45 0.00 0.39
2026 high_ozone TROPOMI TCOscope 14 22.01 16.49 -3.83 21.67 0.93 0.91 0.59 0.75
2026 rapid_rise Brewer CAMS 7 37.13 29.57 -6.90 36.48 0.64 0.67 0.26 0.56
2026 rapid_rise Brewer Climatology 7 83.78 73.68 -71.93 42.96 -0.05 — -0.67 0.00
2026 rapid_rise Brewer GFS 7 35.51 28.03 -4.20 35.26 0.61 0.64 0.29 0.58
2026 rapid_rise Brewer Persistence 7 50.26 41.17 -7.91 49.64 0.26 0.33 0.00 0.40
2026 rapid_rise Brewer TCOscope 7 25.66 20.31 0.76 25.65 0.79 0.80 0.49 0.69
2026 rapid_rise Dobson CAMS 7 30.60 25.59 -8.14 29.50 0.59 0.59 0.35 0.61
2026 rapid_rise Dobson Climatology 7 78.91 72.44 -72.44 31.28 0.03 — -0.68 0.00
2026 rapid_rise Dobson GFS 7 30.67 24.63 -5.51 30.17 0.51 0.52 0.35 0.61
2026 rapid_rise Dobson Persistence 7 46.89 38.71 -10.89 45.61 -0.03 -0.03 0.00 0.41
2026 rapid_rise Dobson TCOscope 7 20.53 16.50 1.20 20.50 0.76 0.76 0.56 0.74
2026 rapid_rise OMI CAMS 14 50.80 40.76 -4.75 50.58 0.61 0.35 -0.00 0.36
2026 rapid_rise OMI Climatology 14 79.67 68.96 -67.10 42.94 0.67 — -0.58 0.00
2026 rapid_rise OMI GFS 14 48.91 39.23 -0.19 48.91 0.62 0.35 0.03 0.39
2026 rapid_rise OMI Persistence 14 50.57 40.17 0.93 50.56 0.59 0.31 0.00 0.37
2026 rapid_rise OMI TCOscope 14 36.98 29.26 6.75 36.36 0.78 0.58 0.27 0.54
2026 rapid_rise OMPS CAMS 14 37.65 29.39 -7.33 36.93 0.80 0.69 0.27 0.55
2026 rapid_rise OMPS Climatology 14 83.08 71.33 -68.92 46.40 0.61 — -0.62 0.00
2026 rapid_rise OMPS GFS 14 37.19 29.06 -2.84 37.08 0.79 0.66 0.28 0.55
2026 rapid_rise OMPS Persistence 14 51.35 40.89 -1.37 51.33 0.59 0.35 0.00 0.38
2026 rapid_rise OMPS TCOscope 14 23.42 18.43 2.83 23.25 0.92 0.87 0.54 0.72
2026 rapid_rise TROPOMI CAMS 14 38.80 30.46 -13.16 36.50 0.80 0.69 0.25 0.55
2026 rapid_rise TROPOMI Climatology 14 87.09 75.71 -74.45 45.18 0.64 — -0.69 0.00
2026 rapid_rise TROPOMI GFS 14 37.22 29.11 -8.67 36.20 0.80 0.67 0.28 0.57
2026 rapid_rise TROPOMI Persistence 14 51.64 41.11 -7.40 51.11 0.59 0.34 0.00 0.41
2026 rapid_rise TROPOMI TCOscope 14 22.94 18.30 -2.75 22.78 0.92 0.87 0.56 0.74

Неопределённость

Парный block bootstrap по календарным датам инициализации: 2000 повторов, блоки 7 и 14 суток; все горизонты и ячейки одного цикла вместе. Блоки не пересекают пропуски. При менее чем двух длинах блока CI не выдаётся. У отдельных семидневных эпизодов обычно недостаточно независимых дат; это отражено явно. Интервалы условны на отборе эпизодов, не учитывают неопределённость выбора событий и не скорректированы на множественные сравнения. ΔRMSE = модель − baseline; отрицательное значение лучше для модели.

year kind source baseline block_days n_initializations delta_rmse_model_minus_baseline ci_low ci_high status
2025.00 antarctic_hole Brewer CAMS 7 22 -0.61 -5.54 6.32 exploratory_conditional_on_selected_events
2025.00 antarctic_hole Brewer GFS 7 22 -1.07 -2.40 1.09 exploratory_conditional_on_selected_events
2025.00 antarctic_hole Brewer Persistence 7 22 -37.94 -49.22 -25.27 exploratory_conditional_on_selected_events
2025.00 antarctic_hole Brewer Climatology 7 22 -38.51 -46.80 -25.50 exploratory_conditional_on_selected_events
2025.00 antarctic_hole Brewer CAMS 14 22 -0.61 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2025.00 antarctic_hole Brewer GFS 14 22 -1.07 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2025.00 antarctic_hole Brewer Persistence 14 22 -37.94 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2025.00 antarctic_hole Brewer Climatology 14 22 -38.51 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2025.00 antarctic_hole Dobson CAMS 7 22 -8.59 -11.54 -6.50 exploratory_conditional_on_selected_events
2025.00 antarctic_hole Dobson GFS 7 22 -8.74 -12.30 -6.41 exploratory_conditional_on_selected_events
2025.00 antarctic_hole Dobson Persistence 7 22 -32.08 -42.52 -19.22 exploratory_conditional_on_selected_events
2025.00 antarctic_hole Dobson Climatology 7 22 -26.52 -28.19 -26.42 exploratory_conditional_on_selected_events
2025.00 antarctic_hole Dobson CAMS 14 22 -8.59 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2025.00 antarctic_hole Dobson GFS 14 22 -8.74 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2025.00 antarctic_hole Dobson Persistence 14 22 -32.08 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2025.00 antarctic_hole Dobson Climatology 14 22 -26.52 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2025.00 antarctic_hole OMI CAMS 7 22 -9.52 -10.22 -9.08 exploratory_conditional_on_selected_events
2025.00 antarctic_hole OMI GFS 7 22 -9.33 -10.18 -8.88 exploratory_conditional_on_selected_events
2025.00 antarctic_hole OMI Persistence 7 22 -20.59 -26.69 -15.90 exploratory_conditional_on_selected_events
2025.00 antarctic_hole OMI Climatology 7 22 -24.47 -34.28 -12.86 exploratory_conditional_on_selected_events
2025.00 antarctic_hole OMI CAMS 14 22 -9.52 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2025.00 antarctic_hole OMI GFS 14 22 -9.33 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2025.00 antarctic_hole OMI Persistence 14 22 -20.59 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2025.00 antarctic_hole OMI Climatology 14 22 -24.47 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2025.00 antarctic_hole OMPS CAMS 7 22 -9.25 -10.48 -8.86 exploratory_conditional_on_selected_events
2025.00 antarctic_hole OMPS GFS 7 22 -9.16 -10.84 -8.72 exploratory_conditional_on_selected_events
2025.00 antarctic_hole OMPS Persistence 7 22 -25.37 -39.05 -15.60 exploratory_conditional_on_selected_events
2025.00 antarctic_hole OMPS Climatology 7 22 -30.27 -32.81 -28.70 exploratory_conditional_on_selected_events
2025.00 antarctic_hole OMPS CAMS 14 22 -9.25 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2025.00 antarctic_hole OMPS GFS 14 22 -9.16 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2025.00 antarctic_hole OMPS Persistence 14 22 -25.37 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2025.00 antarctic_hole OMPS Climatology 14 22 -30.27 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2025.00 antarctic_hole TROPOMI CAMS 7 22 -9.81 -10.56 -9.27 exploratory_conditional_on_selected_events
2025.00 antarctic_hole TROPOMI GFS 7 22 -10.31 -10.64 -9.89 exploratory_conditional_on_selected_events
2025.00 antarctic_hole TROPOMI Persistence 7 22 -35.83 -38.34 -33.09 exploratory_conditional_on_selected_events
2025.00 antarctic_hole TROPOMI Climatology 7 22 -43.08 -51.35 -32.64 exploratory_conditional_on_selected_events
2025.00 antarctic_hole TROPOMI CAMS 14 22 -9.81 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2025.00 antarctic_hole TROPOMI GFS 14 22 -10.31 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2025.00 antarctic_hole TROPOMI Persistence 14 22 -35.83 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2025.00 antarctic_hole TROPOMI Climatology 14 22 -43.08 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2025.00 high_ozone Brewer CAMS 7 11 -7.46 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2025.00 high_ozone Brewer GFS 7 11 -7.14 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2025.00 high_ozone Brewer Persistence 7 11 -28.47 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2025.00 high_ozone Brewer Climatology 7 11 -37.76 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2025.00 high_ozone Brewer CAMS 14 11 -7.46 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2025.00 high_ozone Brewer GFS 14 11 -7.14 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2025.00 high_ozone Brewer Persistence 14 11 -28.47 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2025.00 high_ozone Brewer Climatology 14 11 -37.76 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2025.00 high_ozone Dobson CAMS 7 11 -2.87 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2025.00 high_ozone Dobson GFS 7 11 -1.39 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2025.00 high_ozone Dobson Persistence 7 11 -25.33 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2025.00 high_ozone Dobson Climatology 7 11 -32.04 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2025.00 high_ozone Dobson CAMS 14 11 -2.87 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2025.00 high_ozone Dobson GFS 14 11 -1.39 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2025.00 high_ozone Dobson Persistence 14 11 -25.33 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2025.00 high_ozone Dobson Climatology 14 11 -32.04 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2025.00 high_ozone OMI CAMS 7 22 -9.70 -12.15 -9.39 exploratory_conditional_on_selected_events
2025.00 high_ozone OMI GFS 7 22 -7.06 -8.66 -6.92 exploratory_conditional_on_selected_events
2025.00 high_ozone OMI Persistence 7 22 -21.25 -26.62 -16.69 exploratory_conditional_on_selected_events
2025.00 high_ozone OMI Climatology 7 22 -40.66 -57.16 -29.94 exploratory_conditional_on_selected_events
2025.00 high_ozone OMI CAMS 14 22 -9.70 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2025.00 high_ozone OMI GFS 14 22 -7.06 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2025.00 high_ozone OMI Persistence 14 22 -21.25 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2025.00 high_ozone OMI Climatology 14 22 -40.66 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2025.00 high_ozone OMPS CAMS 7 22 -10.53 -11.50 -10.60 exploratory_conditional_on_selected_events
2025.00 high_ozone OMPS GFS 7 22 -8.45 -9.59 -8.30 exploratory_conditional_on_selected_events
2025.00 high_ozone OMPS Persistence 7 22 -25.73 -28.27 -25.42 exploratory_conditional_on_selected_events
2025.00 high_ozone OMPS Climatology 7 22 -44.43 -66.22 -32.71 exploratory_conditional_on_selected_events
2025.00 high_ozone OMPS CAMS 14 22 -10.53 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2025.00 high_ozone OMPS GFS 14 22 -8.45 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2025.00 high_ozone OMPS Persistence 14 22 -25.73 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2025.00 high_ozone OMPS Climatology 14 22 -44.43 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2025.00 high_ozone TROPOMI CAMS 7 22 -10.07 -15.53 -6.89 exploratory_conditional_on_selected_events
2025.00 high_ozone TROPOMI GFS 7 22 -7.83 -11.14 -5.87 exploratory_conditional_on_selected_events
2025.00 high_ozone TROPOMI Persistence 7 22 -30.73 -35.45 -28.04 exploratory_conditional_on_selected_events
2025.00 high_ozone TROPOMI Climatology 7 22 -59.13 -81.22 -41.20 exploratory_conditional_on_selected_events
2025.00 high_ozone TROPOMI CAMS 14 22 -10.07 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2025.00 high_ozone TROPOMI GFS 14 22 -7.83 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2025.00 high_ozone TROPOMI Persistence 14 22 -30.73 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2025.00 high_ozone TROPOMI Climatology 14 22 -59.13 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2025.00 nh_low_ozone Brewer CAMS 7 11 -9.03 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2025.00 nh_low_ozone Brewer GFS 7 11 -3.15 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2025.00 nh_low_ozone Brewer Persistence 7 11 -15.13 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2025.00 nh_low_ozone Brewer Climatology 7 11 -47.23 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2025.00 nh_low_ozone Brewer CAMS 14 11 -9.03 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2025.00 nh_low_ozone Brewer GFS 14 11 -3.15 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2025.00 nh_low_ozone Brewer Persistence 14 11 -15.13 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2025.00 nh_low_ozone Brewer Climatology 14 11 -47.23 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2025.00 nh_low_ozone Dobson CAMS 7 11 0.43 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2025.00 nh_low_ozone Dobson GFS 7 11 3.22 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2025.00 nh_low_ozone Dobson Persistence 7 11 -10.18 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2025.00 nh_low_ozone Dobson Climatology 7 11 -49.74 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2025.00 nh_low_ozone Dobson CAMS 14 11 0.43 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2025.00 nh_low_ozone Dobson GFS 14 11 3.22 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2025.00 nh_low_ozone Dobson Persistence 14 11 -10.18 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2025.00 nh_low_ozone Dobson Climatology 14 11 -49.74 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2025.00 nh_low_ozone OMI CAMS 7 22 7.45 7.37 10.62 exploratory_conditional_on_selected_events
2025.00 nh_low_ozone OMI GFS 7 22 2.97 -2.19 9.47 exploratory_conditional_on_selected_events
2025.00 nh_low_ozone OMI Persistence 7 22 -10.59 -19.22 0.66 exploratory_conditional_on_selected_events
2025.00 nh_low_ozone OMI Climatology 7 22 -23.83 -56.96 5.66 exploratory_conditional_on_selected_events
2025.00 nh_low_ozone OMI CAMS 14 22 7.45 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2025.00 nh_low_ozone OMI GFS 14 22 2.97 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2025.00 nh_low_ozone OMI Persistence 14 22 -10.59 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2025.00 nh_low_ozone OMI Climatology 14 22 -23.83 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2025.00 nh_low_ozone OMPS CAMS 7 22 7.85 7.95 10.48 exploratory_conditional_on_selected_events
2025.00 nh_low_ozone OMPS GFS 7 22 3.60 -3.21 10.81 exploratory_conditional_on_selected_events
2025.00 nh_low_ozone OMPS Persistence 7 22 -14.63 -22.69 1.07 exploratory_conditional_on_selected_events
2025.00 nh_low_ozone OMPS Climatology 7 22 -21.18 -56.16 1.88 exploratory_conditional_on_selected_events
2025.00 nh_low_ozone OMPS CAMS 14 22 7.85 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2025.00 nh_low_ozone OMPS GFS 14 22 3.60 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2025.00 nh_low_ozone OMPS Persistence 14 22 -14.63 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2025.00 nh_low_ozone OMPS Climatology 14 22 -21.18 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2025.00 nh_low_ozone TROPOMI CAMS 7 20 4.26 2.72 7.51 exploratory_conditional_on_selected_events
2025.00 nh_low_ozone TROPOMI GFS 7 20 0.18 -1.95 5.09 exploratory_conditional_on_selected_events
2025.00 nh_low_ozone TROPOMI Persistence 7 20 -14.88 -23.88 -9.16 exploratory_conditional_on_selected_events
2025.00 nh_low_ozone TROPOMI Climatology 7 20 -40.34 -61.05 2.37 exploratory_conditional_on_selected_events
2025.00 nh_low_ozone TROPOMI CAMS 14 20 4.26 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2025.00 nh_low_ozone TROPOMI GFS 14 20 0.18 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2025.00 nh_low_ozone TROPOMI Persistence 14 20 -14.88 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2025.00 nh_low_ozone TROPOMI Climatology 14 20 -40.34 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2025.00 rapid_rise Brewer CAMS 7 11 -14.79 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2025.00 rapid_rise Brewer GFS 7 11 -11.41 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2025.00 rapid_rise Brewer Persistence 7 11 -14.13 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2025.00 rapid_rise Brewer Climatology 7 11 -17.27 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2025.00 rapid_rise Brewer CAMS 14 11 -14.79 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2025.00 rapid_rise Brewer GFS 14 11 -11.41 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2025.00 rapid_rise Brewer Persistence 14 11 -14.13 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2025.00 rapid_rise Brewer Climatology 14 11 -17.27 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2025.00 rapid_rise Dobson CAMS 7 5 -35.97 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2025.00 rapid_rise Dobson GFS 7 5 -39.41 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2025.00 rapid_rise Dobson Persistence 7 5 -31.66 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2025.00 rapid_rise Dobson Climatology 7 5 -24.45 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2025.00 rapid_rise Dobson CAMS 14 5 -35.97 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2025.00 rapid_rise Dobson GFS 14 5 -39.41 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2025.00 rapid_rise Dobson Persistence 14 5 -31.66 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2025.00 rapid_rise Dobson Climatology 14 5 -24.45 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2025.00 rapid_rise OMI CAMS 7 22 -5.43 -7.16 -4.70 exploratory_conditional_on_selected_events
2025.00 rapid_rise OMI GFS 7 22 -4.88 -6.61 -4.34 exploratory_conditional_on_selected_events
2025.00 rapid_rise OMI Persistence 7 22 -4.38 -13.42 2.24 exploratory_conditional_on_selected_events
2025.00 rapid_rise OMI Climatology 7 22 -1.09 -10.88 5.63 exploratory_conditional_on_selected_events
2025.00 rapid_rise OMI CAMS 14 22 -5.43 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2025.00 rapid_rise OMI GFS 14 22 -4.88 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2025.00 rapid_rise OMI Persistence 14 22 -4.38 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2025.00 rapid_rise OMI Climatology 14 22 -1.09 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2025.00 rapid_rise OMPS CAMS 7 22 -9.30 -12.10 -6.78 exploratory_conditional_on_selected_events
2025.00 rapid_rise OMPS GFS 7 22 -8.49 -10.79 -7.33 exploratory_conditional_on_selected_events
2025.00 rapid_rise OMPS Persistence 7 22 -6.81 -20.43 1.19 exploratory_conditional_on_selected_events
2025.00 rapid_rise OMPS Climatology 7 22 -7.42 -22.63 1.30 exploratory_conditional_on_selected_events
2025.00 rapid_rise OMPS CAMS 14 22 -9.30 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2025.00 rapid_rise OMPS GFS 14 22 -8.49 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2025.00 rapid_rise OMPS Persistence 14 22 -6.81 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2025.00 rapid_rise OMPS Climatology 14 22 -7.42 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2025.00 rapid_rise TROPOMI CAMS 7 22 -18.03 -26.77 -7.89 exploratory_conditional_on_selected_events
2025.00 rapid_rise TROPOMI GFS 7 22 -15.81 -22.75 -7.72 exploratory_conditional_on_selected_events
2025.00 rapid_rise TROPOMI Persistence 7 22 -27.71 -33.96 -20.95 exploratory_conditional_on_selected_events
2025.00 rapid_rise TROPOMI Climatology 7 22 -27.91 -32.15 -23.88 exploratory_conditional_on_selected_events
2025.00 rapid_rise TROPOMI CAMS 14 22 -18.03 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2025.00 rapid_rise TROPOMI GFS 14 22 -15.81 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2025.00 rapid_rise TROPOMI Persistence 14 22 -27.71 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2025.00 rapid_rise TROPOMI Climatology 14 22 -27.91 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2026.00 antarctic_hole Dobson CAMS 7 11 -10.40 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2026.00 antarctic_hole Dobson GFS 7 11 -8.42 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2026.00 antarctic_hole Dobson Persistence 7 11 -31.36 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2026.00 antarctic_hole Dobson Climatology 7 11 -21.13 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2026.00 antarctic_hole Dobson CAMS 14 11 -10.40 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2026.00 antarctic_hole Dobson GFS 14 11 -8.42 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2026.00 antarctic_hole Dobson Persistence 14 11 -31.36 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2026.00 antarctic_hole Dobson Climatology 14 11 -21.13 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2026.00 antarctic_hole OMPS CAMS 7 22 -3.47 -4.40 -2.73 exploratory_conditional_on_selected_events
2026.00 antarctic_hole OMPS GFS 7 22 -4.96 -5.93 -4.13 exploratory_conditional_on_selected_events
2026.00 antarctic_hole OMPS Persistence 7 22 -21.68 -25.26 -18.03 exploratory_conditional_on_selected_events
2026.00 antarctic_hole OMPS Climatology 7 22 -19.99 -22.23 -16.51 exploratory_conditional_on_selected_events
2026.00 antarctic_hole OMPS CAMS 14 22 -3.47 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2026.00 antarctic_hole OMPS GFS 14 22 -4.96 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2026.00 antarctic_hole OMPS Persistence 14 22 -21.68 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2026.00 antarctic_hole OMPS Climatology 14 22 -19.99 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2026.00 antarctic_hole TROPOMI CAMS 7 22 -7.77 -8.11 -7.35 exploratory_conditional_on_selected_events
2026.00 antarctic_hole TROPOMI GFS 7 22 -8.82 -9.56 -8.15 exploratory_conditional_on_selected_events
2026.00 antarctic_hole TROPOMI Persistence 7 22 -23.68 -26.17 -20.98 exploratory_conditional_on_selected_events
2026.00 antarctic_hole TROPOMI Climatology 7 22 -20.12 -22.40 -16.66 exploratory_conditional_on_selected_events
2026.00 antarctic_hole TROPOMI CAMS 14 22 -7.77 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2026.00 antarctic_hole TROPOMI GFS 14 22 -8.82 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2026.00 antarctic_hole TROPOMI Persistence 14 22 -23.68 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2026.00 antarctic_hole TROPOMI Climatology 14 22 -20.12 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2026.00 high_ozone Brewer CAMS 7 11 -18.30 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2026.00 high_ozone Brewer GFS 7 11 -14.50 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2026.00 high_ozone Brewer Persistence 7 11 -35.49 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2026.00 high_ozone Brewer Climatology 7 11 -44.15 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2026.00 high_ozone Brewer CAMS 14 11 -18.30 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2026.00 high_ozone Brewer GFS 14 11 -14.50 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2026.00 high_ozone Brewer Persistence 14 11 -35.49 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2026.00 high_ozone Brewer Climatology 14 11 -44.15 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2026.00 high_ozone Dobson CAMS 7 11 -11.28 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2026.00 high_ozone Dobson GFS 7 11 -10.97 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2026.00 high_ozone Dobson Persistence 7 11 -22.58 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2026.00 high_ozone Dobson Climatology 7 11 -58.80 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2026.00 high_ozone Dobson CAMS 14 11 -11.28 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2026.00 high_ozone Dobson GFS 14 11 -10.97 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2026.00 high_ozone Dobson Persistence 14 11 -22.58 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2026.00 high_ozone Dobson Climatology 14 11 -58.80 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2026.00 high_ozone OMI CAMS 7 22 -9.86 -11.53 -6.24 exploratory_conditional_on_selected_events
2026.00 high_ozone OMI GFS 7 22 -8.33 -9.85 -6.48 exploratory_conditional_on_selected_events
2026.00 high_ozone OMI Persistence 7 22 -9.93 -17.32 -5.52 exploratory_conditional_on_selected_events
2026.00 high_ozone OMI Climatology 7 22 -36.86 -80.00 -11.81 exploratory_conditional_on_selected_events
2026.00 high_ozone OMI CAMS 14 22 -9.86 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2026.00 high_ozone OMI GFS 14 22 -8.33 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2026.00 high_ozone OMI Persistence 14 22 -9.93 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2026.00 high_ozone OMI Climatology 14 22 -36.86 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2026.00 high_ozone OMPS CAMS 7 22 -12.96 -15.37 -5.90 exploratory_conditional_on_selected_events
2026.00 high_ozone OMPS GFS 7 22 -11.72 -14.87 -5.37 exploratory_conditional_on_selected_events
2026.00 high_ozone OMPS Persistence 7 22 -31.81 -37.70 -19.57 exploratory_conditional_on_selected_events
2026.00 high_ozone OMPS Climatology 7 22 -62.04 -90.31 -45.81 exploratory_conditional_on_selected_events
2026.00 high_ozone OMPS CAMS 14 22 -12.96 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2026.00 high_ozone OMPS GFS 14 22 -11.72 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2026.00 high_ozone OMPS Persistence 14 22 -31.81 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2026.00 high_ozone OMPS Climatology 14 22 -62.04 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2026.00 high_ozone TROPOMI CAMS 7 22 -14.98 -18.32 -6.17 exploratory_conditional_on_selected_events
2026.00 high_ozone TROPOMI GFS 7 22 -13.08 -16.77 -6.45 exploratory_conditional_on_selected_events
2026.00 high_ozone TROPOMI Persistence 7 22 -31.21 -38.38 -18.94 exploratory_conditional_on_selected_events
2026.00 high_ozone TROPOMI Climatology 7 22 -65.90 -89.35 -52.36 exploratory_conditional_on_selected_events
2026.00 high_ozone TROPOMI CAMS 14 22 -14.98 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2026.00 high_ozone TROPOMI GFS 14 22 -13.08 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2026.00 high_ozone TROPOMI Persistence 14 22 -31.21 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2026.00 high_ozone TROPOMI Climatology 14 22 -65.90 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2026.00 rapid_rise Brewer CAMS 7 11 -11.47 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2026.00 rapid_rise Brewer GFS 7 11 -9.85 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2026.00 rapid_rise Brewer Persistence 7 11 -24.60 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2026.00 rapid_rise Brewer Climatology 7 11 -58.12 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2026.00 rapid_rise Brewer CAMS 14 11 -11.47 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2026.00 rapid_rise Brewer GFS 14 11 -9.85 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2026.00 rapid_rise Brewer Persistence 14 11 -24.60 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2026.00 rapid_rise Brewer Climatology 14 11 -58.12 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2026.00 rapid_rise Dobson CAMS 7 11 -10.07 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2026.00 rapid_rise Dobson GFS 7 11 -10.14 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2026.00 rapid_rise Dobson Persistence 7 11 -26.36 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2026.00 rapid_rise Dobson Climatology 7 11 -58.38 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2026.00 rapid_rise Dobson CAMS 14 11 -10.07 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2026.00 rapid_rise Dobson GFS 14 11 -10.14 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2026.00 rapid_rise Dobson Persistence 14 11 -26.36 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2026.00 rapid_rise Dobson Climatology 14 11 -58.38 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2026.00 rapid_rise OMI CAMS 7 22 -13.82 -15.87 -12.29 exploratory_conditional_on_selected_events
2026.00 rapid_rise OMI GFS 7 22 -11.93 -13.78 -10.96 exploratory_conditional_on_selected_events
2026.00 rapid_rise OMI Persistence 7 22 -13.59 -19.69 -8.65 exploratory_conditional_on_selected_events
2026.00 rapid_rise OMI Climatology 7 22 -42.69 -58.97 -31.56 exploratory_conditional_on_selected_events
2026.00 rapid_rise OMI CAMS 14 22 -13.82 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2026.00 rapid_rise OMI GFS 14 22 -11.93 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2026.00 rapid_rise OMI Persistence 14 22 -13.59 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2026.00 rapid_rise OMI Climatology 14 22 -42.69 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2026.00 rapid_rise OMPS CAMS 7 22 -14.23 -17.37 -10.15 exploratory_conditional_on_selected_events
2026.00 rapid_rise OMPS GFS 7 22 -13.76 -17.22 -9.11 exploratory_conditional_on_selected_events
2026.00 rapid_rise OMPS Persistence 7 22 -27.93 -30.39 -24.24 exploratory_conditional_on_selected_events
2026.00 rapid_rise OMPS Climatology 7 22 -59.66 -67.96 -55.52 exploratory_conditional_on_selected_events
2026.00 rapid_rise OMPS CAMS 14 22 -14.23 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2026.00 rapid_rise OMPS GFS 14 22 -13.76 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2026.00 rapid_rise OMPS Persistence 14 22 -27.93 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2026.00 rapid_rise OMPS Climatology 14 22 -59.66 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2026.00 rapid_rise TROPOMI CAMS 7 22 -15.86 -19.69 -10.72 exploratory_conditional_on_selected_events
2026.00 rapid_rise TROPOMI GFS 7 22 -14.28 -18.50 -8.65 exploratory_conditional_on_selected_events
2026.00 rapid_rise TROPOMI Persistence 7 22 -28.70 -31.21 -24.50 exploratory_conditional_on_selected_events
2026.00 rapid_rise TROPOMI Climatology 7 22 -64.14 -72.15 -60.20 exploratory_conditional_on_selected_events
2026.00 rapid_rise TROPOMI CAMS 14 22 -15.86 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2026.00 rapid_rise TROPOMI GFS 14 22 -14.28 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2026.00 rapid_rise TROPOMI Persistence 14 22 -28.70 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates
2026.00 rapid_rise TROPOMI Climatology 14 22 -64.14 — — insufficient_contiguous_dates

Отдельные эпизоды

2025-09-27 — Антарктическая озоновая дыра

Окно 2025-09-24…2025-09-30; центр -77.4°, 34.2°. Площадь отбора по OMPS во всей поисковой области 20.21 млн км²; покрытие 99.8%.

2025_antarctic_hole_1_scores.png2025_antarctic_hole_1_maps.png2025_antarctic_hole_1_area.png2025_antarctic_hole_1_series.png
Площадь, обнаружение и амплитуда экстремума, T+3
source system n_dates area_mae_km2 area_bias_km2 min_tco_mae_du max_tco_mae_du precision recall iou f1
OMI CAMS 7 1943678.72 181260.55 5.60 32.27 0.81 0.81 0.68 0.81
OMI Climatology 7 2690570.22 -2488459.79 28.97 116.29 0.78 0.67 0.56 0.72
OMI GFS 7 4011648.20 -4011648.20 17.49 30.51 0.90 0.70 0.65 0.78
OMI Persistence 7 2918894.90 -986262.17 7.95 21.08 0.76 0.72 0.59 0.74
OMI TCOscope 7 1635712.54 -1076716.86 6.55 34.51 0.88 0.83 0.74 0.85
OMPS CAMS 7 2031708.98 319499.16 5.86 21.19 0.80 0.82 0.68 0.81
OMPS Climatology 7 2613516.36 -2394037.44 29.75 106.68 0.78 0.67 0.56 0.72
OMPS GFS 7 3963271.90 -3963271.90 18.53 21.17 0.90 0.70 0.65 0.79
OMPS Persistence 7 2976595.37 -858662.94 7.11 12.81 0.76 0.73 0.59 0.74
OMPS TCOscope 7 1621755.45 -1004604.13 6.01 24.76 0.88 0.83 0.74 0.85
TROPOMI CAMS 7 1160441.14 1160441.14 2.96 18.16 0.87 0.93 0.82 0.90
TROPOMI Climatology 7 1907775.03 -1552750.27 25.97 103.70 0.76 0.69 0.57 0.72
TROPOMI GFS 7 3128320.10 -3128320.10 14.99 17.99 0.95 0.78 0.75 0.86
TROPOMI Persistence 7 3068986.95 -27122.45 8.99 9.31 0.73 0.73 0.57 0.73
TROPOMI TCOscope 7 800419.94 -167443.53 6.18 21.78 0.94 0.93 0.88 0.94
Полные scores эпизода
source system n n_dates rmse mae bias centered_rmse pearson anomaly_correlation skill_persistence skill_climatology
Brewer CAMS 70 7 11.19 8.29 -3.32 10.69 0.96 0.95 0.75 0.73
Brewer Climatology 70 7 42.20 37.66 26.66 32.71 0.76 — 0.04 0.00
Brewer GFS 70 7 19.03 16.00 13.02 13.88 0.93 0.91 0.57 0.55
Brewer Persistence 70 7 43.93 32.99 10.63 42.63 0.46 0.26 0.00 -0.04
Brewer TCOscope 70 7 17.35 14.37 -13.51 10.88 0.97 0.95 0.61 0.59
Dobson CAMS 170 7 31.93 20.81 -1.23 31.90 0.92 0.64 0.30 0.38
Dobson Climatology 170 7 51.74 43.71 -33.99 39.01 0.90 — -0.13 0.00
Dobson GFS 170 7 31.95 20.87 4.41 31.64 0.92 0.61 0.30 0.38
Dobson Persistence 170 7 45.64 34.56 7.28 45.06 0.85 0.32 0.00 0.12
Dobson TCOscope 170 7 25.02 17.33 2.73 24.88 0.95 0.78 0.45 0.52
OMI CAMS 365775 7 46.47 34.08 -5.05 46.20 0.88 0.75 0.14 0.34
OMI Climatology 365775 7 70.42 55.87 -22.22 66.82 0.73 — -0.30 0.00
OMI GFS 365775 7 46.32 35.12 3.28 46.20 0.88 0.73 0.14 0.34
OMI Persistence 365775 7 54.00 39.61 4.34 53.83 0.85 0.65 0.00 0.23
OMI TCOscope 365775 7 36.71 26.66 -0.20 36.71 0.93 0.84 0.32 0.48
OMPS CAMS 416545 7 45.41 33.47 -5.87 45.03 0.88 0.74 0.13 0.33
OMPS Climatology 416545 7 68.16 53.63 -22.05 64.49 0.73 — -0.30 0.00
OMPS GFS 416545 7 45.19 34.33 1.80 45.15 0.88 0.73 0.14 0.34
OMPS Persistence 416545 7 52.36 38.59 4.10 52.20 0.84 0.64 0.00 0.23
OMPS TCOscope 416545 7 35.91 26.24 -0.99 35.89 0.92 0.83 0.31 0.47
TROPOMI CAMS 439090 7 25.33 18.81 -9.72 23.39 0.97 0.93 0.50 0.62
TROPOMI Climatology 439090 7 66.50 53.36 -25.89 61.26 0.76 — -0.31 0.00
TROPOMI GFS 439090 7 26.62 20.36 -1.99 26.54 0.96 0.90 0.48 0.60
TROPOMI Persistence 439090 7 50.88 37.01 0.03 50.88 0.85 0.64 0.00 0.23
TROPOMI TCOscope 439090 7 16.01 12.24 -4.82 15.27 0.99 0.97 0.69 0.76

2025-10-26 — Антарктическая озоновая дыра

Окно 2025-10-23…2025-10-29; центр -79.8°, 21.0°. Площадь отбора по OMPS во всей поисковой области 16.52 млн км²; покрытие 98.9%.

2025_antarctic_hole_2_scores.png2025_antarctic_hole_2_maps.png2025_antarctic_hole_2_area.png2025_antarctic_hole_2_series.png
Площадь, обнаружение и амплитуда экстремума, T+3
source system n_dates area_mae_km2 area_bias_km2 min_tco_mae_du max_tco_mae_du precision recall iou f1
OMI CAMS 7 2147521.72 2058866.35 8.52 14.26 0.73 0.83 0.64 0.78
OMI Climatology 7 1643422.43 938128.89 13.58 68.85 0.76 0.81 0.64 0.78
OMI GFS 7 1556013.98 676259.21 4.59 13.97 0.77 0.80 0.64 0.78
OMI Persistence 7 2280239.17 885664.85 3.77 10.36 0.66 0.70 0.52 0.68
OMI TCOscope 7 1303293.91 333631.65 5.73 17.99 0.83 0.84 0.72 0.83
OMPS CAMS 7 1773838.72 1773838.72 5.78 16.58 0.83 0.93 0.78 0.88
OMPS Climatology 7 1149359.93 573622.16 10.85 71.18 0.79 0.82 0.67 0.80
OMPS GFS 7 509068.40 345259.92 2.04 16.29 0.87 0.89 0.79 0.88
OMPS Persistence 7 1694275.01 536983.26 2.74 11.62 0.70 0.72 0.55 0.71
OMPS TCOscope 7 485793.92 -43062.43 3.05 18.16 0.94 0.94 0.89 0.94
TROPOMI CAMS 7 1115231.06 1115231.06 11.29 19.07 0.86 0.94 0.82 0.90
TROPOMI Climatology 7 984552.56 618687.41 16.47 70.93 0.80 0.84 0.70 0.82
TROPOMI GFS 7 416714.56 148597.24 6.22 19.61 0.90 0.91 0.82 0.90
TROPOMI Persistence 7 1090513.46 72224.15 4.15 7.44 0.74 0.74 0.59 0.74
TROPOMI TCOscope 7 359169.19 -139344.00 6.17 18.87 0.97 0.96 0.92 0.96
Полные scores эпизода
source system n n_dates rmse mae bias centered_rmse pearson anomaly_correlation skill_persistence skill_climatology
Brewer CAMS 90 7 18.76 15.16 -13.17 13.37 0.98 0.96 0.68 0.69
Brewer Climatology 90 7 61.31 42.04 -41.66 44.99 0.79 — -0.03 0.00
Brewer GFS 90 7 13.92 10.47 -6.20 12.47 0.98 0.96 0.77 0.77
Brewer Persistence 90 7 59.47 40.20 -8.94 58.79 0.57 0.08 0.00 0.03
Brewer TCOscope 90 7 13.48 10.69 -7.80 10.99 0.99 0.97 0.77 0.78
Dobson CAMS 180 7 30.93 21.68 -5.97 30.35 0.94 0.76 0.50 0.34
Dobson Climatology 180 7 46.97 39.01 -13.45 45.01 0.86 — 0.25 0.00
Dobson GFS 180 7 31.20 22.27 -2.28 31.12 0.94 0.75 0.50 0.34
Dobson Persistence 180 7 62.40 43.30 6.63 62.04 0.77 0.00 0.00 -0.33
Dobson TCOscope 180 7 20.53 13.34 -3.32 20.26 0.97 0.90 0.67 0.56
OMI CAMS 395300 7 46.69 32.45 -6.57 46.22 0.84 0.45 0.24 0.09
OMI Climatology 395300 7 51.05 38.23 -22.45 45.84 0.82 — 0.16 0.00
OMI GFS 395300 7 46.46 32.21 -1.85 46.43 0.83 0.43 0.24 0.09
OMI Persistence 395300 7 61.10 44.34 3.57 60.99 0.72 -0.02 0.00 -0.20
OMI TCOscope 395300 7 37.41 26.55 -3.27 37.26 0.89 0.62 0.39 0.27
OMPS CAMS 440155 7 27.40 19.11 -6.07 26.72 0.94 0.79 0.50 0.42
OMPS Climatology 440155 7 46.95 35.11 -20.47 42.25 0.83 — 0.14 0.00
OMPS GFS 440155 7 27.53 18.98 -1.47 27.49 0.93 0.77 0.50 0.41
OMPS Persistence 440155 7 54.86 39.16 4.95 54.63 0.76 0.06 0.00 -0.17
OMPS TCOscope 440155 7 17.54 12.52 -2.75 17.32 0.97 0.91 0.68 0.63
TROPOMI CAMS 381900 7 26.07 19.60 -11.03 23.62 0.96 0.82 0.50 0.46
TROPOMI Climatology 381900 7 48.38 37.03 -27.12 40.06 0.86 — 0.08 0.00
TROPOMI GFS 381900 7 25.63 18.09 -6.52 24.78 0.95 0.80 0.51 0.47
TROPOMI Persistence 381900 7 52.65 36.94 -0.53 52.65 0.78 0.03 0.00 -0.09
TROPOMI TCOscope 381900 7 15.68 12.21 -7.39 13.83 0.99 0.94 0.70 0.68

2025-02-20 — Сильный избыток ОСО

Окно 2025-02-17…2025-02-23; центр 42.6°, 39.0°. Площадь отбора по OMPS во всей поисковой области 9.70 млн км²; покрытие 95.3%.

2025_high_ozone_1_scores.png2025_high_ozone_1_maps.png2025_high_ozone_1_area.png2025_high_ozone_1_series.png
Площадь, обнаружение и амплитуда экстремума, T+3
source system n_dates area_mae_km2 area_bias_km2 min_tco_mae_du max_tco_mae_du precision recall iou f1
OMI CAMS 7 964322.88 -825801.74 8.21 23.00 0.68 0.44 0.37 0.54
OMI Climatology 7 2321277.62 -2321277.62 18.53 87.78 — 0.00 0.00 0.00
OMI GFS 7 930612.82 -896028.94 7.69 20.85 0.70 0.43 0.36 0.53
OMI Persistence 7 1712595.05 -1706282.82 12.28 52.66 0.64 0.17 0.16 0.27
OMI TCOscope 7 758749.88 -601059.57 8.51 17.06 0.74 0.55 0.46 0.63
OMPS CAMS 7 1794943.90 -1794943.90 5.98 25.76 0.79 0.44 0.39 0.56
OMPS Climatology 7 4034370.28 -4034370.28 18.57 95.02 — 0.00 0.00 0.00
OMPS GFS 7 1862884.22 -1851097.11 7.50 25.97 0.78 0.42 0.38 0.55
OMPS Persistence 7 3148176.05 -3148176.05 10.72 57.93 0.73 0.16 0.15 0.26
OMPS TCOscope 7 1467933.06 -1344111.82 4.81 17.00 0.82 0.55 0.49 0.65
TROPOMI CAMS 7 1021989.43 -1021989.43 9.23 17.25 0.92 0.63 0.60 0.75
TROPOMI Climatology 7 3261415.80 -3261415.80 23.00 88.48 — 0.00 0.00 0.00
TROPOMI GFS 7 1078142.64 -1078142.64 5.78 21.58 0.91 0.61 0.58 0.73
TROPOMI Persistence 7 2375221.57 -2375221.57 12.90 46.77 0.49 0.13 0.12 0.21
TROPOMI TCOscope 7 765431.67 -571157.35 4.41 19.71 0.89 0.74 0.67 0.81
Полные scores эпизода
source system n n_dates rmse mae bias centered_rmse pearson anomaly_correlation skill_persistence skill_climatology
Brewer CAMS 130 7 30.20 22.63 -14.24 26.64 0.66 0.66 0.41 0.50
Brewer Climatology 130 7 60.50 51.23 -51.23 32.20 0.10 — -0.18 0.00
Brewer GFS 130 7 29.88 22.02 -11.77 27.47 0.60 0.60 0.42 0.51
Brewer Persistence 130 7 51.21 40.51 -24.54 44.95 0.10 0.10 0.00 0.15
Brewer TCOscope 130 7 22.75 16.93 -11.74 19.48 0.80 0.80 0.56 0.62
Dobson CAMS 95 7 30.15 22.25 -10.17 28.38 0.73 0.73 0.43 0.49
Dobson Climatology 95 7 59.32 47.29 -43.45 40.38 0.10 — -0.13 0.00
Dobson GFS 95 7 28.68 20.51 -6.97 27.82 0.72 0.73 0.45 0.52
Dobson Persistence 95 7 52.62 41.12 -25.41 46.07 0.30 0.27 0.00 0.11
Dobson TCOscope 95 7 27.29 21.55 -4.03 26.99 0.75 0.75 0.48 0.54
OMI CAMS 18610 7 41.50 31.72 -15.93 38.32 0.63 0.49 0.27 0.33
OMI Climatology 18610 7 61.83 51.62 -49.98 36.40 0.57 — -0.09 0.00
OMI GFS 18610 7 39.23 29.31 -13.12 36.97 0.63 0.47 0.31 0.37
OMI Persistence 18610 7 56.59 44.47 -31.90 46.74 0.40 0.22 0.00 0.08
OMI TCOscope 18610 7 31.48 23.07 -6.23 30.86 0.75 0.60 0.44 0.49
OMPS CAMS 28700 7 43.19 32.83 -21.23 37.62 0.65 0.49 0.27 0.35
OMPS Climatology 28700 7 66.31 56.16 -55.19 36.74 0.60 — -0.12 0.00
OMPS GFS 28700 7 41.02 30.49 -18.72 36.51 0.66 0.48 0.31 0.38
OMPS Persistence 28700 7 59.13 46.65 -36.08 46.85 0.41 0.21 0.00 0.11
OMPS TCOscope 28700 7 32.36 23.06 -12.17 29.98 0.78 0.63 0.45 0.51
TROPOMI CAMS 28700 7 25.72 19.55 -14.96 20.93 0.89 0.85 0.51 0.58
TROPOMI Climatology 28700 7 61.71 50.50 -48.92 37.61 0.56 — -0.18 0.00
TROPOMI GFS 28700 7 24.93 18.72 -12.44 21.60 0.88 0.82 0.52 0.60
TROPOMI Persistence 28700 7 52.40 40.27 -29.81 43.09 0.50 0.34 0.00 0.15
TROPOMI TCOscope 28700 7 19.30 14.97 -5.90 18.38 0.92 0.87 0.63 0.69

2025-11-30 — Сильный избыток ОСО

Окно 2025-11-27…2025-12-03; центр 58.2°, -85.8°. Площадь отбора по OMPS во всей поисковой области 6.77 млн км²; покрытие 79.2%.

2025_high_ozone_2_scores.png2025_high_ozone_2_maps.png2025_high_ozone_2_area.png2025_high_ozone_2_series.png
Площадь, обнаружение и амплитуда экстремума, T+3
source system n_dates area_mae_km2 area_bias_km2 min_tco_mae_du max_tco_mae_du precision recall iou f1
OMI CAMS 7 1139719.90 -479179.28 22.30 70.03 0.71 0.56 0.46 0.63
OMI Climatology 7 2276375.99 -2276375.99 13.82 177.92 — 0.00 0.00 0.00
OMI GFS 7 981523.31 -137735.13 21.40 59.94 0.70 0.66 0.52 0.68
OMI Persistence 7 1291084.49 -510240.43 18.04 77.14 0.59 0.45 0.34 0.51
OMI TCOscope 7 967423.67 273475.08 24.30 62.34 0.71 0.79 0.60 0.75
OMPS CAMS 7 815449.76 -588261.45 12.60 50.26 0.85 0.68 0.61 0.76
OMPS Climatology 7 3083893.82 -3083893.82 10.56 161.35 — 0.00 0.00 0.00
OMPS GFS 7 693840.53 -120496.59 11.75 40.38 0.81 0.78 0.66 0.79
OMPS Persistence 7 1328605.67 -729044.67 17.62 61.82 0.67 0.52 0.41 0.58
OMPS TCOscope 7 498092.61 244891.43 17.50 42.52 0.86 0.93 0.81 0.90
TROPOMI CAMS 7 1102937.15 -1102937.15 11.20 42.03 0.91 0.68 0.64 0.78
TROPOMI Climatology 7 4381278.30 -4381278.30 20.24 157.98 — 0.00 0.00 0.00
TROPOMI GFS 7 836441.09 -569829.36 9.89 31.03 0.89 0.77 0.71 0.83
TROPOMI Persistence 7 1590042.98 -1088766.03 23.28 53.39 0.80 0.60 0.52 0.68
TROPOMI TCOscope 7 432548.97 -121040.08 11.76 33.55 0.94 0.91 0.86 0.92
Полные scores эпизода
source system n n_dates rmse mae bias centered_rmse pearson anomaly_correlation skill_persistence skill_climatology
OMI CAMS 15805 7 46.31 36.24 -15.39 43.68 0.59 0.52 0.12 0.48
OMI Climatology 15805 7 89.71 75.14 -74.32 50.25 0.28 — -0.70 0.00
OMI GFS 15805 7 43.19 33.83 -7.91 42.46 0.61 0.55 0.18 0.52
OMI Persistence 15805 7 52.84 43.83 -19.13 49.25 0.50 0.38 0.00 0.41
OMI TCOscope 15805 7 36.98 29.33 -0.77 36.97 0.71 0.68 0.30 0.59
OMPS CAMS 21205 7 28.26 22.76 -11.00 26.03 0.83 0.77 0.33 0.65
OMPS Climatology 21205 7 81.28 70.91 -70.79 39.95 0.46 — -0.92 0.00
OMPS GFS 21205 7 26.27 21.11 -3.20 26.07 0.82 0.77 0.38 0.68
OMPS Persistence 21205 7 42.41 34.63 -15.43 39.50 0.62 0.48 0.00 0.48
OMPS TCOscope 21205 7 17.57 13.94 3.16 17.29 0.92 0.90 0.59 0.78
TROPOMI CAMS 25760 7 33.33 27.02 -20.71 26.12 0.84 0.81 0.27 0.66
TROPOMI Climatology 25760 7 97.28 86.87 -86.84 43.83 0.40 — -1.14 0.00
TROPOMI GFS 25760 7 29.36 23.67 -13.19 26.23 0.84 0.80 0.35 0.70
TROPOMI Persistence 25760 7 45.51 37.38 -22.88 39.34 0.68 0.58 0.00 0.53
TROPOMI TCOscope 25760 7 18.52 14.43 -6.36 17.39 0.93 0.92 0.59 0.81

2025-10-31 — Низкий ОСО в Северном полушарии

Окно 2025-10-28…2025-11-03; центр 41.4°, -57.0°. Площадь отбора по OMPS во всей поисковой области 0.32 млн км²; покрытие 89.5%.

2025_nh_low_ozone_1_scores.png2025_nh_low_ozone_1_maps.png2025_nh_low_ozone_1_area.png2025_nh_low_ozone_1_series.png
Площадь, обнаружение и амплитуда экстремума, T+3
source system n_dates area_mae_km2 area_bias_km2 min_tco_mae_du max_tco_mae_du precision recall iou f1
OMI CAMS 7 0.00 0.00 9.35 16.10 — — — —
OMI Climatology 7 0.00 0.00 37.58 15.81 — — — —
OMI GFS 7 0.00 0.00 11.76 12.04 — — — —
OMI Persistence 7 0.00 0.00 34.48 19.84 — — — —
OMI TCOscope 7 0.00 0.00 23.53 12.56 — — — —
OMPS CAMS 7 63008.80 -40399.27 12.50 12.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
OMPS Climatology 7 51704.03 -51704.03 40.16 14.09 — 0.00 0.00 0.00
OMPS GFS 7 51704.03 -51704.03 13.97 8.73 — 0.00 0.00 0.00
OMPS Persistence 7 51704.03 -51704.03 36.96 16.38 — 0.00 0.00 0.00
OMPS TCOscope 7 51704.03 -51704.03 26.30 12.93 — 0.00 0.00 0.00
TROPOMI CAMS 4 0.00 0.00 6.04 19.06 — — — —
TROPOMI Climatology 4 0.00 0.00 30.84 13.93 — — — —
TROPOMI GFS 4 0.00 0.00 4.58 16.34 — — — —
TROPOMI Persistence 4 0.00 0.00 38.28 26.23 — — — —
TROPOMI TCOscope 4 0.00 0.00 13.62 20.65 — — — —
Полные scores эпизода
source system n n_dates rmse mae bias centered_rmse pearson anomaly_correlation skill_persistence skill_climatology
OMI CAMS 18950 7 21.35 16.66 2.12 21.25 0.52 0.21 0.53 0.10
OMI Climatology 18950 7 23.82 20.07 17.37 16.30 0.71 — 0.47 0.00
OMI GFS 18950 7 20.22 15.94 4.40 19.74 0.57 0.25 0.55 0.15
OMI Persistence 18950 7 45.34 36.28 28.10 35.59 0.08 -0.11 0.00 -0.90
OMI TCOscope 18950 7 28.32 22.84 18.63 21.33 0.58 0.28 0.38 -0.19
OMPS CAMS 30135 7 15.78 11.56 0.49 15.77 0.74 0.61 0.65 0.35
OMPS Climatology 30135 7 24.16 19.81 16.00 18.10 0.60 — 0.47 0.00
OMPS GFS 30135 7 15.28 11.52 2.95 14.99 0.76 0.62 0.66 0.37
OMPS Persistence 30135 7 45.46 35.57 27.78 35.98 0.05 -0.06 0.00 -0.88
OMPS TCOscope 30135 7 24.49 19.22 17.17 17.46 0.71 0.55 0.46 -0.01
TROPOMI CAMS 7535 4 20.69 15.20 -10.55 17.80 0.74 0.44 0.54 0.02
TROPOMI Climatology 7535 4 21.18 17.63 11.68 17.67 0.73 — 0.53 0.00
TROPOMI GFS 7535 4 18.25 13.29 -6.44 17.08 0.75 0.46 0.59 0.14
TROPOMI Persistence 7535 4 45.07 35.36 23.70 38.33 0.17 -0.02 0.00 -1.13
TROPOMI TCOscope 7535 4 22.19 17.20 13.45 17.65 0.77 0.60 0.51 -0.05

2025-02-16 — Низкий ОСО в Северном полушарии

Окно 2025-02-13…2025-02-19; центр 72.6°, -40.2°. Площадь отбора по OMPS во всей поисковой области 0.23 млн км²; покрытие 94.0%.

2025_nh_low_ozone_2_scores.png2025_nh_low_ozone_2_maps.png2025_nh_low_ozone_2_area.png2025_nh_low_ozone_2_series.png
Площадь, обнаружение и амплитуда экстремума, T+3
source system n_dates area_mae_km2 area_bias_km2 min_tco_mae_du max_tco_mae_du precision recall iou f1
OMI CAMS 7 7953.88 -7953.88 19.79 45.61 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
OMI Climatology 7 8914.91 -8914.91 104.04 59.42 — 0.00 0.00 0.00
OMI GFS 7 8914.91 -8914.91 36.94 48.61 — 0.00 0.00 0.00
OMI Persistence 7 8914.91 -8914.91 31.99 48.40 — 0.00 0.00 0.00
OMI TCOscope 7 8914.91 -8914.91 40.58 39.50 — 0.00 0.00 0.00
OMPS CAMS 7 38741.63 -38741.63 21.29 44.86 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
OMPS Climatology 7 39702.66 -39702.66 99.40 60.21 — 0.00 0.00 0.00
OMPS GFS 7 39702.66 -39702.66 33.70 47.87 — 0.00 0.00 0.00
OMPS Persistence 7 39702.66 -39702.66 28.09 48.14 — 0.00 0.00 0.00
OMPS TCOscope 7 39702.66 -39702.66 36.57 40.28 — 0.00 0.00 0.00
TROPOMI CAMS 7 68079.73 -68079.73 7.52 29.53 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
TROPOMI Climatology 7 69040.76 -69040.76 89.37 44.64 — 0.00 0.00 0.00
TROPOMI GFS 7 69040.76 -69040.76 26.97 28.19 — 0.00 0.00 0.00
TROPOMI Persistence 7 69040.76 -69040.76 21.11 44.67 — 0.00 0.00 0.00
TROPOMI TCOscope 7 69040.76 -69040.76 23.06 16.04 — 0.00 0.00 0.00
Полные scores эпизода
source system n n_dates rmse mae bias centered_rmse pearson anomaly_correlation skill_persistence skill_climatology
Brewer CAMS 35 7 30.09 26.73 -14.31 26.46 0.33 0.33 0.17 0.56
Brewer Climatology 35 7 68.28 63.57 63.57 24.92 — — -0.89 0.00
Brewer GFS 35 7 24.20 20.35 -5.04 23.67 0.47 0.47 0.33 0.65
Brewer Persistence 35 7 36.18 30.20 -8.97 35.05 -0.12 -0.12 0.00 0.47
Brewer TCOscope 35 7 21.05 17.63 7.42 19.70 0.61 0.61 0.42 0.69
Dobson CAMS 35 7 24.45 20.08 -7.60 23.24 0.49 0.49 0.30 0.67
Dobson Climatology 35 7 74.62 70.28 70.28 25.07 — — -1.13 0.00
Dobson GFS 35 7 21.65 17.11 1.68 21.59 0.56 0.56 0.38 0.71
Dobson Persistence 35 7 35.06 29.73 -2.26 34.98 -0.11 -0.11 0.00 0.53
Dobson TCOscope 35 7 24.88 21.24 14.15 20.46 0.58 0.58 0.29 0.67
OMI CAMS 13495 7 41.94 33.66 13.53 39.70 0.39 0.26 0.17 0.60
OMI Climatology 13495 7 105.97 100.88 100.74 32.86 0.39 — -1.11 0.00
OMI GFS 13495 7 53.40 43.25 33.31 41.73 0.31 0.15 -0.06 0.50
OMI Persistence 13495 7 50.30 41.25 27.90 41.85 0.30 0.11 0.00 0.53
OMI TCOscope 13495 7 50.89 41.84 38.91 32.79 0.53 0.37 -0.01 0.52
OMPS CAMS 15495 7 40.92 32.69 12.80 38.87 0.41 0.22 0.15 0.60
OMPS Climatology 15495 7 103.53 98.97 98.89 30.66 0.49 — -1.15 0.00
OMPS GFS 15495 7 52.38 42.11 32.59 41.02 0.34 0.12 -0.09 0.49
OMPS Persistence 15495 7 48.18 39.63 26.70 40.11 0.36 0.11 0.00 0.53
OMPS TCOscope 15495 7 48.99 39.96 37.36 31.69 0.56 0.34 -0.02 0.53
TROPOMI CAMS 20070 7 25.45 19.75 -0.21 25.45 0.78 0.68 0.38 0.71
TROPOMI Climatology 20070 7 88.38 82.25 82.17 32.54 0.59 — -1.17 0.00
TROPOMI GFS 20070 7 32.95 26.62 19.17 26.80 0.76 0.65 0.19 0.63
TROPOMI Persistence 20070 7 40.74 33.11 11.85 38.98 0.49 0.20 0.00 0.54
TROPOMI TCOscope 20070 7 31.35 25.61 21.42 22.89 0.83 0.71 0.23 0.65

2025-02-16 — Резкий суточный рост ОСО

Окно 2025-02-13…2025-02-19; центр 43.8°, -27.0°. Площадь отбора по OMPS во всей поисковой области 7.90 млн км²; покрытие 93.4%.

2025_rapid_rise_1_scores.png2025_rapid_rise_1_maps.png2025_rapid_rise_1_area.png2025_rapid_rise_1_series.png
Ошибка суточного изменения, DU/сутки (соседние lead одного цикла)
source lead system n_dates rmse mae bias skill_persistence skill_climatology
OMPS 2 CAMS 7 99.80 80.90 1.71 -0.79 -0.79
OMPS 2 Climatology 7 55.77 44.62 -2.32 0.00 0.00
OMPS 2 GFS 7 98.76 79.96 3.36 -0.77 -0.77
OMPS 2 Persistence 7 55.77 44.62 -2.32 0.00 0.00
OMPS 2 TCOscope 7 86.83 69.43 1.69 -0.56 -0.56
OMPS 3 CAMS 7 99.60 80.65 2.30 -0.79 -0.79
OMPS 3 Climatology 7 55.77 44.62 -2.32 0.00 0.00
OMPS 3 GFS 7 99.05 80.15 3.20 -0.78 -0.78
OMPS 3 Persistence 7 55.77 44.62 -2.32 0.00 0.00
OMPS 3 TCOscope 7 85.87 68.47 3.15 -0.54 -0.54
OMPS 4 CAMS 7 99.98 80.00 2.81 -0.79 -0.79
OMPS 4 Climatology 7 55.77 44.62 -2.32 0.00 0.00
OMPS 4 GFS 7 97.05 78.50 2.34 -0.74 -0.74
OMPS 4 Persistence 7 55.77 44.62 -2.32 0.00 0.00
OMPS 4 TCOscope 7 80.66 64.20 2.49 -0.45 -0.45
OMPS 5 CAMS 7 98.37 78.85 4.16 -0.76 -0.76
OMPS 5 Climatology 7 55.77 44.62 -2.32 0.00 0.00
OMPS 5 GFS 7 97.28 78.82 1.86 -0.74 -0.74
OMPS 5 Persistence 7 55.77 44.62 -2.32 0.00 0.00
OMPS 5 TCOscope 7 75.13 59.93 -0.76 -0.35 -0.35
TROPOMI 2 CAMS 7 71.28 54.04 1.68 -0.26 -0.26
TROPOMI 2 Climatology 7 56.43 44.23 -1.82 0.00 0.00
TROPOMI 2 GFS 7 67.89 52.02 3.22 -0.20 -0.20
TROPOMI 2 Persistence 7 56.43 44.23 -1.82 0.00 0.00
TROPOMI 2 TCOscope 7 21.71 16.37 0.12 0.62 0.62
TROPOMI 3 CAMS 7 73.21 55.43 2.31 -0.30 -0.30
TROPOMI 3 Climatology 7 56.43 44.23 -1.82 0.00 0.00
TROPOMI 3 GFS 7 67.16 51.74 2.90 -0.19 -0.19
TROPOMI 3 Persistence 7 56.43 44.23 -1.82 0.00 0.00
TROPOMI 3 TCOscope 7 22.16 17.01 0.97 0.61 0.61
TROPOMI 4 CAMS 7 73.28 54.84 2.50 -0.30 -0.30
TROPOMI 4 Climatology 7 56.43 44.23 -1.82 0.00 0.00
TROPOMI 4 GFS 7 66.06 50.20 1.79 -0.17 -0.17
TROPOMI 4 Persistence 7 56.43 44.23 -1.82 0.00 0.00
TROPOMI 4 TCOscope 7 26.00 19.35 0.49 0.54 0.54
TROPOMI 5 CAMS 7 71.18 53.66 3.19 -0.26 -0.26
TROPOMI 5 Climatology 7 56.43 44.23 -1.82 0.00 0.00
TROPOMI 5 GFS 7 66.26 51.08 1.33 -0.17 -0.17
TROPOMI 5 Persistence 7 56.43 44.23 -1.82 0.00 0.00
TROPOMI 5 TCOscope 7 31.45 24.49 -2.36 0.44 0.44
Площадь, обнаружение и амплитуда экстремума, T+3
source system n_dates area_mae_km2 area_bias_km2 min_tco_mae_du max_tco_mae_du precision recall iou f1
OMI CAMS 7 127364.63 -82029.74 12.96 32.74 0.10 0.09 0.05 0.09
OMI Climatology 7 596511.36 -596511.36 7.42 62.17 — 0.00 0.00 0.00
OMI GFS 7 166987.27 -1538.94 9.13 31.94 0.07 0.07 0.03 0.07
OMI Persistence 7 596511.36 -596511.36 14.61 30.83 — 0.00 0.00 0.00
OMI TCOscope 7 285519.44 168307.43 8.83 31.10 0.14 0.18 0.08 0.16
OMPS CAMS 7 804715.87 -44606.86 12.16 34.59 0.05 0.05 0.03 0.05
OMPS Climatology 7 2032205.44 -2032205.44 5.88 69.66 — 0.00 0.00 0.00
OMPS GFS 7 738249.03 68422.08 9.21 31.77 0.03 0.04 0.02 0.03
OMPS Persistence 7 2032205.44 -2032205.44 8.36 32.95 — 0.00 0.00 0.00
OMPS TCOscope 7 549567.02 75105.03 7.35 29.02 0.15 0.15 0.08 0.15
TROPOMI CAMS 7 554906.12 -110107.17 8.29 27.71 0.26 0.24 0.14 0.25
TROPOMI Climatology 7 2168025.07 -2168025.07 8.40 76.89 — 0.00 0.00 0.00
TROPOMI GFS 7 446328.85 -3030.01 5.93 27.36 0.31 0.31 0.18 0.31
TROPOMI Persistence 7 2168025.07 -2168025.07 14.67 43.58 — 0.00 0.00 0.00
TROPOMI TCOscope 7 299562.94 -53522.63 5.58 14.42 0.74 0.72 0.58 0.73
Полные scores эпизода
source system n n_dates rmse mae bias centered_rmse pearson anomaly_correlation skill_persistence skill_climatology
Brewer CAMS 175 7 35.23 27.84 -12.65 32.88 0.48 0.53 -0.02 0.07
Brewer Climatology 175 7 37.71 29.64 -25.01 28.22 0.46 — -0.09 0.00
Brewer GFS 175 7 31.85 25.71 -8.47 30.70 0.49 0.49 0.08 0.16
Brewer Persistence 175 7 34.57 24.66 -12.97 32.04 0.30 0.10 0.00 0.08
Brewer TCOscope 175 7 20.44 13.83 -5.76 19.61 0.78 0.76 0.41 0.46
Dobson CAMS 5 1 43.70 37.28 37.28 22.81 — — -0.11 -0.36
Dobson Climatology 5 1 32.18 32.18 -32.18 0.00 — — 0.18 0.00
Dobson GFS 5 1 47.14 42.90 42.90 19.54 — — -0.20 -0.46
Dobson Persistence 5 1 39.39 29.63 6.44 38.86 — — 0.00 -0.22
Dobson TCOscope 5 1 7.73 6.67 5.45 5.48 — — 0.80 0.76
OMI CAMS 19130 7 58.23 46.09 -0.94 58.22 0.23 0.04 -0.14 -0.21
OMI Climatology 19130 7 48.20 38.32 -19.03 44.28 0.45 — 0.06 0.00
OMI GFS 19130 7 57.62 46.27 2.94 57.55 0.25 -0.02 -0.12 -0.20
OMI Persistence 19130 7 51.23 40.17 -1.07 51.22 0.36 0.25 0.00 -0.06
OMI TCOscope 19130 7 52.45 41.81 8.01 51.83 0.43 0.23 -0.02 -0.09
OMPS CAMS 27690 7 64.79 51.96 -5.22 64.58 0.16 -0.06 -0.22 -0.22
OMPS Climatology 27690 7 52.96 40.77 -26.36 45.93 0.47 — 0.00 0.00
OMPS GFS 27690 7 63.21 51.36 -2.12 63.17 0.19 -0.11 -0.19 -0.19
OMPS Persistence 27690 7 53.15 41.31 -6.18 52.79 0.38 0.22 0.00 -0.00
OMPS TCOscope 27690 7 53.19 43.19 1.56 53.16 0.42 0.17 -0.00 -0.00
TROPOMI CAMS 28700 7 46.02 35.14 -7.62 45.39 0.58 0.43 0.15 0.12
TROPOMI Climatology 28700 7 52.07 40.30 -29.14 43.15 0.53 — 0.04 0.00
TROPOMI GFS 28700 7 42.49 32.65 -4.50 42.25 0.63 0.47 0.22 0.18
TROPOMI Persistence 28700 7 54.30 41.66 -9.10 53.53 0.35 0.13 0.00 -0.04
TROPOMI TCOscope 28700 7 20.68 15.23 -1.25 20.65 0.91 0.88 0.62 0.60

2025-12-26 — Резкий суточный рост ОСО

Окно 2025-12-23…2025-12-29; центр 37.8°, -57.0°. Площадь отбора по OMPS во всей поисковой области 6.82 млн км²; покрытие 77.4%.

2025_rapid_rise_2_scores.png2025_rapid_rise_2_maps.png2025_rapid_rise_2_area.png2025_rapid_rise_2_series.png
Ошибка суточного изменения, DU/сутки (соседние lead одного цикла)
source lead system n_dates rmse mae bias skill_persistence skill_climatology
OMPS 2 CAMS 7 35.65 26.34 2.05 -0.27 -0.27
OMPS 2 Climatology 7 28.12 21.26 -2.86 0.00 0.00
OMPS 2 GFS 7 35.95 26.42 3.98 -0.28 -0.28
OMPS 2 Persistence 7 28.12 21.26 -2.86 0.00 0.00
OMPS 2 TCOscope 7 14.80 10.93 -0.47 0.47 0.47
OMPS 3 CAMS 7 34.61 25.54 2.50 -0.23 -0.23
OMPS 3 Climatology 7 28.12 21.26 -2.86 0.00 0.00
OMPS 3 GFS 7 35.80 25.98 3.56 -0.27 -0.27
OMPS 3 Persistence 7 28.12 21.26 -2.86 0.00 0.00
OMPS 3 TCOscope 7 16.10 12.00 -1.56 0.43 0.43
OMPS 4 CAMS 7 32.72 24.11 2.06 -0.16 -0.16
OMPS 4 Climatology 7 28.12 21.26 -2.86 0.00 0.00
OMPS 4 GFS 7 34.82 25.54 1.10 -0.24 -0.24
OMPS 4 Persistence 7 28.12 21.26 -2.86 0.00 0.00
OMPS 4 TCOscope 7 19.66 14.18 -2.48 0.30 0.30
OMPS 5 CAMS 7 31.68 23.40 0.79 -0.13 -0.13
OMPS 5 Climatology 7 28.12 21.26 -2.86 0.00 0.00
OMPS 5 GFS 7 31.28 23.39 -0.49 -0.11 -0.11
OMPS 5 Persistence 7 28.12 21.26 -2.86 0.00 0.00
OMPS 5 TCOscope 7 24.96 18.09 -2.98 0.11 0.11
TROPOMI 2 CAMS 7 34.48 25.19 1.66 -0.32 -0.32
TROPOMI 2 Climatology 7 26.18 19.19 -3.25 0.00 0.00
TROPOMI 2 GFS 7 34.70 25.12 3.59 -0.33 -0.33
TROPOMI 2 Persistence 7 26.18 19.19 -3.25 0.00 0.00
TROPOMI 2 TCOscope 7 14.27 10.34 -0.86 0.46 0.46
TROPOMI 3 CAMS 7 33.40 24.36 2.11 -0.28 -0.28
TROPOMI 3 Climatology 7 26.18 19.19 -3.25 0.00 0.00
TROPOMI 3 GFS 7 34.54 24.66 3.17 -0.32 -0.32
TROPOMI 3 Persistence 7 26.18 19.19 -3.25 0.00 0.00
TROPOMI 3 TCOscope 7 15.51 11.19 -1.95 0.41 0.41
TROPOMI 4 CAMS 7 31.30 22.71 1.67 -0.20 -0.20
TROPOMI 4 Climatology 7 26.18 19.19 -3.25 0.00 0.00
TROPOMI 4 GFS 7 33.62 24.19 0.71 -0.28 -0.28
TROPOMI 4 Persistence 7 26.18 19.19 -3.25 0.00 0.00
TROPOMI 4 TCOscope 7 18.74 12.95 -2.87 0.28 0.28
TROPOMI 5 CAMS 7 30.11 21.95 0.40 -0.15 -0.15
TROPOMI 5 Climatology 7 26.18 19.19 -3.25 0.00 0.00
TROPOMI 5 GFS 7 30.18 22.17 -0.88 -0.15 -0.15
TROPOMI 5 Persistence 7 26.18 19.19 -3.25 0.00 0.00
TROPOMI 5 TCOscope 7 23.41 16.49 -3.37 0.11 0.11
Площадь, обнаружение и амплитуда экстремума, T+3
source system n_dates area_mae_km2 area_bias_km2 min_tco_mae_du max_tco_mae_du precision recall iou f1
OMI CAMS 7 199697.69 -109627.31 8.84 26.33 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
OMI Climatology 7 187505.64 -187505.64 8.73 79.47 — 0.00 0.00 0.00
OMI GFS 7 205741.83 -78054.86 8.63 24.48 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
OMI Persistence 7 187505.64 -187505.64 11.01 24.26 — 0.00 0.00 0.00
OMI TCOscope 7 194668.05 -82495.60 6.98 24.88 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
OMPS CAMS 7 373116.51 -153408.43 6.13 11.42 0.13 0.11 0.06 0.12
OMPS Climatology 7 743153.70 -743153.70 10.21 77.68 — 0.00 0.00 0.00
OMPS GFS 7 384948.87 -791.30 5.08 12.62 0.15 0.15 0.08 0.15
OMPS Persistence 7 743153.70 -743153.70 8.79 21.22 — 0.00 0.00 0.00
OMPS TCOscope 7 514974.63 -514974.63 5.53 17.78 0.62 0.19 0.17 0.29
TROPOMI CAMS 7 377376.58 -164778.61 6.91 12.58 0.13 0.10 0.06 0.12
TROPOMI Climatology 7 754523.88 -754523.88 8.79 84.28 — 0.00 0.00 0.00
TROPOMI GFS 7 352851.47 -12161.48 5.87 9.78 0.16 0.15 0.08 0.15
TROPOMI Persistence 7 754523.88 -754523.88 7.75 27.23 — 0.00 0.00 0.00
TROPOMI TCOscope 7 526344.81 -526344.81 4.15 22.50 0.65 0.20 0.18 0.30
Полные scores эпизода
source system n n_dates rmse mae bias centered_rmse pearson anomaly_correlation skill_persistence skill_climatology
OMI CAMS 17155 7 33.65 25.05 -4.92 33.29 0.68 0.48 0.18 0.11
OMI Climatology 17155 7 37.61 27.93 -17.83 33.12 0.58 — 0.09 0.00
OMI GFS 17155 7 33.14 24.69 -1.78 33.09 0.68 0.46 0.20 0.12
OMI Persistence 17155 7 41.26 31.14 -8.13 40.46 0.50 0.16 0.00 -0.10
OMI TCOscope 17155 7 28.24 21.46 2.79 28.11 0.74 0.59 0.32 0.25
OMPS CAMS 28700 7 23.42 17.43 -4.88 22.90 0.85 0.76 0.36 0.38
OMPS Climatology 28700 7 37.99 27.66 -17.98 33.47 0.58 — -0.05 0.00
OMPS GFS 28700 7 24.16 17.77 -1.86 24.08 0.83 0.72 0.34 0.36
OMPS Persistence 28700 7 36.35 26.95 -8.64 35.31 0.61 0.37 0.00 0.04
OMPS TCOscope 28700 7 15.95 11.60 1.59 15.87 0.92 0.88 0.56 0.58
TROPOMI CAMS 28700 7 24.18 18.30 -10.45 21.81 0.86 0.77 0.34 0.40
TROPOMI Climatology 28700 7 40.01 28.94 -23.54 32.36 0.65 — -0.09 0.00
TROPOMI GFS 28700 7 23.90 17.75 -7.42 22.72 0.85 0.74 0.35 0.40
TROPOMI Persistence 28700 7 36.74 27.30 -14.20 33.88 0.65 0.40 0.00 0.08
TROPOMI TCOscope 28700 7 15.69 10.96 -3.97 15.18 0.93 0.88 0.57 0.61

2026-09-17 — Антарктическая озоновая дыра

Окно 2026-09-14…2026-09-20; центр -77.4°, -156.6°. Площадь отбора по OMPS во всей поисковой области 23.47 млн км²; покрытие 96.6%.

2026_antarctic_hole_1_scores.png2026_antarctic_hole_1_maps.png2026_antarctic_hole_1_area.png2026_antarctic_hole_1_series.png
Площадь, обнаружение и амплитуда экстремума, T+3
source system n_dates area_mae_km2 area_bias_km2 min_tco_mae_du max_tco_mae_du precision recall iou f1
OMPS CAMS 7 556082.98 -107535.07 7.65 7.56 0.93 0.93 0.87 0.93
OMPS Climatology 7 10087752.61 -10087752.61 22.72 32.26 0.98 0.56 0.56 0.72
OMPS GFS 7 4445006.14 -4445006.14 21.96 12.92 0.98 0.79 0.78 0.88
OMPS Persistence 7 845360.52 -785662.20 10.85 27.41 0.89 0.86 0.78 0.88
OMPS TCOscope 7 669007.79 -642190.26 10.74 6.81 0.96 0.94 0.90 0.95
TROPOMI CAMS 7 442684.25 -32344.50 3.62 17.42 0.94 0.94 0.89 0.94
TROPOMI Climatology 7 9994231.08 -9994231.08 13.04 43.21 0.98 0.60 0.59 0.74
TROPOMI GFS 7 4417451.50 -4417451.50 14.62 23.87 0.99 0.81 0.81 0.89
TROPOMI Persistence 7 839093.53 -762935.41 8.65 26.53 0.90 0.88 0.80 0.89
TROPOMI TCOscope 7 615939.09 -548668.73 5.42 7.55 0.97 0.95 0.92 0.96
Полные scores эпизода
source system n n_dates rmse mae bias centered_rmse pearson anomaly_correlation skill_persistence skill_climatology
OMPS CAMS 374380 7 21.53 16.09 -1.55 21.48 0.95 0.77 0.42 0.48
OMPS Climatology 374380 7 41.19 33.44 27.00 31.10 0.88 — -0.10 0.00
OMPS GFS 374380 7 22.82 17.99 4.55 22.37 0.94 0.74 0.39 0.45
OMPS Persistence 374380 7 37.44 28.66 8.14 36.54 0.85 0.37 0.00 0.09
OMPS TCOscope 374380 7 18.93 14.63 7.61 17.33 0.97 0.84 0.49 0.54
TROPOMI CAMS 415385 7 22.13 16.61 -8.29 20.52 0.96 0.79 0.39 0.41
TROPOMI Climatology 415385 7 37.33 29.82 19.55 31.80 0.89 — -0.03 0.00
TROPOMI GFS 415385 7 22.77 17.95 -2.12 22.67 0.95 0.74 0.37 0.39
TROPOMI Persistence 415385 7 36.18 27.32 1.23 36.16 0.86 0.40 0.00 0.03
TROPOMI TCOscope 415385 7 14.82 11.67 0.55 14.81 0.98 0.89 0.59 0.60

2026-08-20 — Антарктическая озоновая дыра

Окно 2026-08-17…2026-08-23; центр -70.2°, -101.4°. Площадь отбора по OMPS во всей поисковой области 1.74 млн км²; покрытие 77.1%.

2026_antarctic_hole_2_scores.png2026_antarctic_hole_2_maps.png2026_antarctic_hole_2_area.png2026_antarctic_hole_2_series.png
Площадь, обнаружение и амплитуда экстремума, T+3
source system n_dates area_mae_km2 area_bias_km2 min_tco_mae_du max_tco_mae_du precision recall iou f1
OMPS CAMS 7 780687.40 -780687.40 20.33 9.78 0.74 0.45 0.39 0.56
OMPS Climatology 7 1301409.41 -1301409.41 26.96 37.71 0.62 0.21 0.18 0.31
OMPS GFS 7 1852081.30 -1852081.30 42.73 8.71 0.85 0.04 0.04 0.08
OMPS Persistence 7 1256561.72 -885773.66 31.46 20.81 0.19 0.10 0.07 0.13
OMPS TCOscope 7 363725.21 144032.46 17.90 13.48 0.64 0.68 0.49 0.66
TROPOMI CAMS 7 1221260.79 -1198918.33 19.85 17.08 0.69 0.41 0.35 0.52
TROPOMI Climatology 7 1394201.65 -484966.57 23.56 51.70 0.48 0.40 0.28 0.43
TROPOMI GFS 7 2745257.68 -2745257.68 38.59 19.85 0.90 0.06 0.06 0.12
TROPOMI Persistence 7 1999390.74 -692062.22 28.87 19.38 0.18 0.14 0.09 0.16
TROPOMI TCOscope 7 1315037.98 1315037.98 17.66 26.57 0.55 0.80 0.48 0.65
Полные scores эпизода
source system n n_dates rmse mae bias centered_rmse pearson anomaly_correlation skill_persistence skill_climatology
Dobson CAMS 105 7 32.04 24.97 5.02 31.65 0.68 0.71 0.40 0.25
Dobson Climatology 105 7 42.77 35.50 16.28 39.55 0.16 — 0.19 0.00
Dobson GFS 105 7 30.05 23.93 7.61 29.07 0.70 0.72 0.43 0.30
Dobson Persistence 105 7 53.00 43.58 16.50 50.37 -0.06 0.11 0.00 -0.24
Dobson TCOscope 105 7 21.64 17.14 7.75 20.20 0.85 0.86 0.59 0.49
OMPS CAMS 272545 7 23.38 17.55 -0.31 23.38 0.85 0.77 0.47 0.35
OMPS Climatology 272545 7 36.15 29.44 10.83 34.49 0.64 — 0.18 0.00
OMPS GFS 272545 7 25.08 19.32 5.88 24.38 0.83 0.74 0.43 0.31
OMPS Persistence 272545 7 44.03 34.90 6.43 43.56 0.50 0.22 0.00 -0.22
OMPS TCOscope 272545 7 18.96 14.90 4.04 18.52 0.91 0.84 0.57 0.48
TROPOMI CAMS 316865 7 23.94 18.37 -5.31 23.35 0.88 0.76 0.43 0.28
TROPOMI Climatology 316865 7 33.11 26.56 3.43 32.93 0.75 — 0.21 0.00
TROPOMI GFS 316865 7 25.42 19.52 1.20 25.39 0.86 0.70 0.39 0.23
TROPOMI Persistence 316865 7 41.71 32.65 -0.12 41.71 0.62 0.24 0.00 -0.26
TROPOMI TCOscope 316865 7 15.71 12.37 -2.89 15.44 0.95 0.89 0.62 0.53

2026-03-09 — Сильный избыток ОСО

Окно 2026-03-06…2026-03-12; центр 71.4°, -137.4°. Площадь отбора по OMPS во всей поисковой области 27.94 млн км²; покрытие 100.0%.

2026_high_ozone_1_scores.png2026_high_ozone_1_maps.png2026_high_ozone_1_area.png2026_high_ozone_1_series.png
Площадь, обнаружение и амплитуда экстремума, T+3
source system n_dates area_mae_km2 area_bias_km2 min_tco_mae_du max_tco_mae_du precision recall iou f1
OMI CAMS 7 579737.27 -153186.99 23.15 24.07 0.90 0.86 0.78 0.88
OMI Climatology 7 3465502.53 -3465502.53 55.69 139.28 — 0.00 0.00 0.00
OMI GFS 7 493171.59 143018.90 29.17 21.79 0.90 0.94 0.85 0.92
OMI Persistence 7 1022161.75 -379959.79 45.72 33.48 0.88 0.78 0.70 0.83
OMI TCOscope 7 391204.11 161339.79 28.75 30.52 0.90 0.95 0.86 0.92
OMPS CAMS 7 482663.53 -213782.34 18.06 12.27 0.95 0.90 0.85 0.92
OMPS Climatology 7 3826214.01 -3826214.01 59.58 136.47 — 0.00 0.00 0.00
OMPS GFS 7 276089.75 82423.55 24.13 12.69 0.94 0.96 0.91 0.95
OMPS Persistence 7 874330.30 -460440.70 38.73 28.24 0.91 0.80 0.75 0.85
OMPS TCOscope 7 151631.58 100744.44 19.21 27.71 0.96 0.98 0.94 0.97
TROPOMI CAMS 7 530726.48 -299016.02 21.13 6.10 0.96 0.89 0.86 0.92
TROPOMI Climatology 7 4180279.53 -4180279.53 70.42 132.90 — 0.00 0.00 0.00
TROPOMI GFS 7 322547.77 -1587.92 21.84 13.50 0.95 0.95 0.91 0.95
TROPOMI Persistence 7 923037.51 -553009.99 33.99 21.07 0.93 0.81 0.76 0.87
TROPOMI TCOscope 7 191397.46 16732.97 12.81 24.12 0.97 0.97 0.95 0.97
Полные scores эпизода
source system n n_dates rmse mae bias centered_rmse pearson anomaly_correlation skill_persistence skill_climatology
OMI CAMS 21560 7 32.79 26.24 -5.55 32.32 0.41 0.51 0.23 0.69
OMI Climatology 21560 7 105.49 100.32 -100.32 32.61 -0.42 — -1.48 0.00
OMI GFS 21560 7 33.08 25.67 8.26 32.04 0.40 0.51 0.22 0.69
OMI Persistence 21560 7 42.47 33.34 -8.85 41.53 0.11 0.23 0.00 0.60
OMI TCOscope 21560 7 26.61 20.11 -1.27 26.58 0.48 0.60 0.37 0.75
OMPS CAMS 24770 7 26.95 21.38 -8.78 25.48 0.63 0.69 0.34 0.75
OMPS Climatology 24770 7 109.79 105.01 -105.00 32.08 -0.29 — -1.67 0.00
OMPS GFS 24770 7 26.64 20.50 5.16 26.14 0.60 0.66 0.35 0.76
OMPS Persistence 24770 7 41.10 32.23 -12.35 39.20 0.19 0.30 0.00 0.63
OMPS TCOscope 24770 7 20.27 16.01 -4.26 19.82 0.73 0.79 0.51 0.82
TROPOMI CAMS 28700 7 26.74 21.45 -7.71 25.60 0.57 0.65 0.32 0.75
TROPOMI Climatology 28700 7 108.85 105.28 -105.28 27.64 -0.11 — -1.75 0.00
TROPOMI GFS 28700 7 27.15 21.40 6.34 26.40 0.53 0.61 0.31 0.75
TROPOMI Persistence 28700 7 39.59 31.12 -11.98 37.73 0.15 0.25 0.00 0.64
TROPOMI TCOscope 28700 7 19.89 15.71 -3.16 19.63 0.66 0.73 0.50 0.82

2026-04-12 — Сильный избыток ОСО

Окно 2026-04-09…2026-04-15; центр 57.0°, -10.2°. Площадь отбора по OMPS во всей поисковой области 24.39 млн км²; покрытие 100.0%.

2026_high_ozone_2_scores.png2026_high_ozone_2_maps.png2026_high_ozone_2_area.png2026_high_ozone_2_series.png
Площадь, обнаружение и амплитуда экстремума, T+3
source system n_dates area_mae_km2 area_bias_km2 min_tco_mae_du max_tco_mae_du precision recall iou f1
OMI CAMS 7 630744.41 110520.14 13.24 24.96 0.44 0.45 0.29 0.44
OMI Climatology 7 2489524.06 -2489524.06 28.20 125.68 — 0.00 0.00 0.00
OMI GFS 7 669431.11 224544.50 12.72 21.83 0.43 0.47 0.29 0.45
OMI Persistence 7 1241476.49 504972.24 11.55 31.56 0.51 0.61 0.39 0.56
OMI TCOscope 7 846842.32 573692.49 8.60 17.79 0.51 0.63 0.40 0.57
OMPS CAMS 7 349474.17 -286745.57 8.42 16.21 0.77 0.70 0.58 0.73
OMPS Climatology 7 3130508.28 -3130508.28 32.84 134.97 — 0.00 0.00 0.00
OMPS GFS 7 401110.27 -176597.44 12.96 14.94 0.75 0.71 0.58 0.73
OMPS Persistence 7 1391140.90 11369.14 16.02 32.07 0.51 0.51 0.35 0.51
OMPS TCOscope 7 398830.52 250393.06 13.05 10.10 0.83 0.89 0.75 0.86
TROPOMI CAMS 7 727800.99 -727800.99 10.42 16.03 0.83 0.66 0.58 0.73
TROPOMI Climatology 7 3571563.70 -3571563.70 20.71 146.50 — 0.00 0.00 0.00
TROPOMI GFS 7 617652.85 -617652.85 5.10 22.73 0.82 0.68 0.59 0.74
TROPOMI Persistence 7 1322887.73 -429686.27 7.64 31.47 0.57 0.50 0.37 0.54
TROPOMI TCOscope 7 320621.55 -190662.35 5.12 18.45 0.89 0.84 0.76 0.86
Полные scores эпизода
source system n n_dates rmse mae bias centered_rmse pearson anomaly_correlation skill_persistence skill_climatology
Brewer CAMS 190 7 42.71 30.00 -15.00 39.99 0.70 0.70 0.29 0.38
Brewer Climatology 190 7 68.56 50.92 -45.11 51.63 0.14 — -0.14 0.00
Brewer GFS 190 7 38.90 27.50 -10.12 37.56 0.72 0.72 0.35 0.43
Brewer Persistence 190 7 59.90 43.84 -8.81 59.25 0.32 0.31 0.00 0.13
Brewer TCOscope 190 7 24.41 17.67 -5.40 23.80 0.89 0.89 0.59 0.64
Dobson CAMS 75 7 36.14 26.15 -13.25 33.62 0.67 0.66 0.24 0.57
Dobson Climatology 75 7 83.65 76.04 -76.04 34.86 0.19 — -0.76 0.00
Dobson GFS 75 7 35.82 26.01 -7.86 34.95 0.61 0.61 0.24 0.57
Dobson Persistence 75 7 47.43 38.22 -1.51 47.41 0.23 0.22 0.00 0.43
Dobson TCOscope 75 7 24.85 18.61 -7.48 23.70 0.80 0.80 0.48 0.70
OMI CAMS 26475 7 63.31 49.88 -1.91 63.28 0.23 0.18 -0.05 0.02
OMI Climatology 26475 7 64.42 50.55 -43.05 47.92 0.37 — -0.07 0.00
OMI GFS 26475 7 61.18 47.91 3.40 61.08 0.23 0.18 -0.02 0.05
OMI Persistence 26475 7 60.15 47.28 11.42 59.05 0.32 0.27 0.00 0.07
OMI TCOscope 26475 7 51.91 40.44 9.46 51.04 0.43 0.39 0.14 0.19
OMPS CAMS 30135 7 38.65 27.85 -6.43 38.11 0.74 0.72 0.35 0.43
OMPS Climatology 30135 7 67.63 53.35 -43.97 51.39 0.41 — -0.14 0.00
OMPS GFS 30135 7 37.06 27.22 -1.21 37.04 0.74 0.72 0.38 0.45
OMPS Persistence 30135 7 59.49 46.35 5.91 59.19 0.37 0.32 0.00 0.12
OMPS TCOscope 30135 7 23.10 17.75 5.18 22.51 0.91 0.90 0.61 0.66
TROPOMI CAMS 30135 7 41.49 30.63 -15.80 38.37 0.74 0.72 0.30 0.44
TROPOMI Climatology 30135 7 74.17 58.46 -53.34 51.53 0.41 — -0.25 0.00
TROPOMI GFS 30135 7 38.71 28.02 -10.58 37.23 0.74 0.72 0.35 0.48
TROPOMI Persistence 30135 7 59.30 45.62 -3.46 59.20 0.37 0.32 0.00 0.20
TROPOMI TCOscope 30135 7 23.08 16.91 -4.19 22.69 0.91 0.90 0.61 0.69

2026-01-28 — Резкий суточный рост ОСО

Окно 2026-01-25…2026-01-31; центр 51.0°, -0.6°. Площадь отбора по OMPS во всей поисковой области 14.21 млн км²; покрытие 85.2%.

2026_rapid_rise_1_scores.png2026_rapid_rise_1_maps.png2026_rapid_rise_1_area.png2026_rapid_rise_1_series.png
Ошибка суточного изменения, DU/сутки (соседние lead одного цикла)
source lead system n_dates rmse mae bias skill_persistence skill_climatology
OMPS 2 CAMS 7 64.63 50.58 0.62 -0.13 -0.13
OMPS 2 Climatology 7 57.02 46.47 0.35 0.00 0.00
OMPS 2 GFS 7 65.46 51.58 -3.26 -0.15 -0.15
OMPS 2 Persistence 7 57.02 46.47 0.35 0.00 0.00
OMPS 2 TCOscope 7 30.54 24.21 2.37 0.46 0.46
OMPS 3 CAMS 7 65.75 50.85 0.77 -0.15 -0.15
OMPS 3 Climatology 7 57.02 46.47 0.35 0.00 0.00
OMPS 3 GFS 7 66.35 52.22 -1.91 -0.16 -0.16
OMPS 3 Persistence 7 57.02 46.47 0.35 0.00 0.00
OMPS 3 TCOscope 7 32.41 26.06 1.62 0.43 0.43
OMPS 4 CAMS 7 66.94 51.73 1.57 -0.17 -0.17
OMPS 4 Climatology 7 57.02 46.47 0.35 0.00 0.00
OMPS 4 GFS 7 67.47 53.11 1.20 -0.18 -0.18
OMPS 4 Persistence 7 57.02 46.47 0.35 0.00 0.00
OMPS 4 TCOscope 7 33.92 27.36 2.19 0.41 0.41
OMPS 5 CAMS 7 68.22 52.86 2.46 -0.20 -0.20
OMPS 5 Climatology 7 57.02 46.47 0.35 0.00 0.00
OMPS 5 GFS 7 66.84 52.07 -0.80 -0.17 -0.17
OMPS 5 Persistence 7 57.02 46.47 0.35 0.00 0.00
OMPS 5 TCOscope 7 38.53 31.22 -1.60 0.32 0.32
TROPOMI 2 CAMS 7 63.43 49.25 1.26 -0.15 -0.15
TROPOMI 2 Climatology 7 55.29 44.77 0.69 0.00 0.00
TROPOMI 2 GFS 7 64.15 50.03 -2.42 -0.16 -0.16
TROPOMI 2 Persistence 7 55.29 44.77 0.69 0.00 0.00
TROPOMI 2 TCOscope 7 29.91 23.44 3.04 0.46 0.46
TROPOMI 3 CAMS 7 64.68 49.69 1.31 -0.17 -0.17
TROPOMI 3 Climatology 7 55.29 44.77 0.69 0.00 0.00
TROPOMI 3 GFS 7 65.07 50.71 -1.20 -0.18 -0.18
TROPOMI 3 Persistence 7 55.29 44.77 0.69 0.00 0.00
TROPOMI 3 TCOscope 7 31.78 25.34 2.12 0.43 0.43
TROPOMI 4 CAMS 7 65.84 50.43 2.01 -0.19 -0.19
TROPOMI 4 Climatology 7 55.29 44.77 0.69 0.00 0.00
TROPOMI 4 GFS 7 66.23 51.53 1.88 -0.20 -0.20
TROPOMI 4 Persistence 7 55.29 44.77 0.69 0.00 0.00
TROPOMI 4 TCOscope 7 33.03 26.49 2.73 0.40 0.40
TROPOMI 5 CAMS 7 66.96 51.13 3.08 -0.21 -0.21
TROPOMI 5 Climatology 7 55.29 44.77 0.69 0.00 0.00
TROPOMI 5 GFS 7 65.61 50.51 -0.09 -0.19 -0.19
TROPOMI 5 Persistence 7 55.29 44.77 0.69 0.00 0.00
TROPOMI 5 TCOscope 7 37.40 30.17 -1.07 0.32 0.32
Площадь, обнаружение и амплитуда экстремума, T+3
source system n_dates area_mae_km2 area_bias_km2 min_tco_mae_du max_tco_mae_du precision recall iou f1
OMI CAMS 7 736894.15 -207033.24 13.46 27.36 0.03 0.02 0.01 0.03
OMI Climatology 7 1088596.89 -1088596.89 16.63 153.61 — 0.00 0.00 0.00
OMI GFS 7 639189.49 -256204.54 8.83 29.44 0.05 0.04 0.02 0.04
OMI Persistence 7 1088596.89 -1088596.89 23.59 24.30 — 0.00 0.00 0.00
OMI TCOscope 7 517888.88 -372524.59 16.32 33.70 0.26 0.17 0.11 0.20
OMPS CAMS 7 416683.55 -109757.49 6.91 11.33 0.46 0.44 0.29 0.45
OMPS Climatology 7 2128520.61 -2128520.61 21.11 137.17 — 0.00 0.00 0.00
OMPS GFS 7 482627.43 -279750.33 7.71 17.96 0.43 0.38 0.25 0.40
OMPS Persistence 7 2128520.61 -2128520.61 18.24 16.84 — 0.00 0.00 0.00
OMPS TCOscope 7 731646.55 -731646.55 17.07 19.27 0.85 0.56 0.51 0.67
TROPOMI CAMS 7 415401.24 -75583.15 11.68 12.90 0.44 0.43 0.28 0.44
TROPOMI Climatology 7 2099385.19 -2099385.19 14.88 140.57 — 0.00 0.00 0.00
TROPOMI GFS 7 440654.24 -248119.89 6.15 16.25 0.42 0.37 0.25 0.40
TROPOMI Persistence 7 2099385.19 -2099385.19 11.95 17.70 — 0.00 0.00 0.00
TROPOMI TCOscope 7 702511.12 -702511.12 10.63 21.15 0.85 0.56 0.51 0.68
Полные scores эпизода
source system n n_dates rmse mae bias centered_rmse pearson anomaly_correlation skill_persistence skill_climatology
Brewer CAMS 295 7 37.13 29.57 -6.90 36.48 0.64 0.67 0.26 0.56
Brewer Climatology 295 7 83.78 73.68 -71.93 42.96 -0.05 — -0.67 0.00
Brewer GFS 295 7 35.51 28.03 -4.20 35.26 0.61 0.64 0.29 0.58
Brewer Persistence 295 7 50.26 41.17 -7.91 49.64 0.26 0.33 0.00 0.40
Brewer TCOscope 295 7 25.66 20.31 0.76 25.65 0.79 0.80 0.49 0.69
Dobson CAMS 80 7 30.60 25.59 -8.14 29.50 0.59 0.59 0.35 0.61
Dobson Climatology 80 7 78.91 72.44 -72.44 31.28 0.03 — -0.68 0.00
Dobson GFS 80 7 30.67 24.63 -5.51 30.17 0.51 0.52 0.35 0.61
Dobson Persistence 80 7 46.89 38.71 -10.89 45.61 -0.03 -0.03 0.00 0.41
Dobson TCOscope 80 7 20.53 16.50 1.20 20.50 0.76 0.76 0.56 0.74
OMI CAMS 23595 7 58.51 48.06 -2.00 58.48 0.19 0.15 -0.10 0.23
OMI Climatology 23595 7 75.75 64.00 -62.46 42.86 0.31 — -0.42 0.00
OMI GFS 23595 7 56.33 46.15 1.60 56.30 0.20 0.14 -0.06 0.26
OMI Persistence 23595 7 53.28 43.10 3.64 53.16 0.30 0.28 0.00 0.30
OMI TCOscope 23595 7 43.41 35.42 12.56 41.56 0.51 0.46 0.19 0.43
OMPS CAMS 29635 7 42.14 33.19 -6.43 41.65 0.64 0.63 0.24 0.49
OMPS Climatology 29635 7 81.91 68.92 -66.50 47.82 0.23 — -0.48 0.00
OMPS GFS 29635 7 41.89 33.18 -2.78 41.80 0.61 0.59 0.24 0.49
OMPS Persistence 29635 7 55.37 45.19 -0.39 55.37 0.31 0.30 0.00 0.32
OMPS TCOscope 29635 7 25.86 20.75 5.18 25.33 0.86 0.85 0.53 0.68
TROPOMI CAMS 30135 7 43.28 34.49 -11.70 41.66 0.63 0.62 0.22 0.49
TROPOMI Climatology 30135 7 84.96 72.56 -71.28 46.23 0.27 — -0.52 0.00
TROPOMI GFS 30135 7 41.90 33.32 -8.02 41.12 0.62 0.59 0.25 0.51
TROPOMI Persistence 30135 7 55.72 45.60 -5.96 55.40 0.29 0.28 0.00 0.34
TROPOMI TCOscope 30135 7 24.82 19.89 0.31 24.82 0.86 0.84 0.55 0.71

2026-03-18 — Резкий суточный рост ОСО

Окно 2026-03-15…2026-03-21; центр 66.6°, -153.0°. Площадь отбора по OMPS во всей поисковой области 10.37 млн км²; покрытие 100.0%.

2026_rapid_rise_2_scores.png2026_rapid_rise_2_maps.png2026_rapid_rise_2_area.png2026_rapid_rise_2_series.png
Ошибка суточного изменения, DU/сутки (соседние lead одного цикла)
source lead system n_dates rmse mae bias skill_persistence skill_climatology
OMPS 2 CAMS 7 39.76 31.83 0.22 -0.41 -0.41
OMPS 2 Climatology 7 28.15 22.95 -3.38 0.00 0.00
OMPS 2 GFS 7 36.78 28.90 -0.73 -0.31 -0.31
OMPS 2 Persistence 7 28.15 22.95 -3.38 0.00 0.00
OMPS 2 TCOscope 7 19.92 15.83 0.55 0.29 0.29
OMPS 3 CAMS 7 38.75 30.93 -0.30 -0.38 -0.38
OMPS 3 Climatology 7 28.15 22.95 -3.38 0.00 0.00
OMPS 3 GFS 7 37.22 29.81 -2.35 -0.32 -0.32
OMPS 3 Persistence 7 28.15 22.95 -3.38 0.00 0.00
OMPS 3 TCOscope 7 20.91 16.58 1.68 0.26 0.26
OMPS 4 CAMS 7 38.59 30.85 -0.66 -0.37 -0.37
OMPS 4 Climatology 7 28.15 22.95 -3.38 0.00 0.00
OMPS 4 GFS 7 37.65 30.30 -0.20 -0.34 -0.34
OMPS 4 Persistence 7 28.15 22.95 -3.38 0.00 0.00
OMPS 4 TCOscope 7 22.75 17.75 0.44 0.19 0.19
OMPS 5 CAMS 7 37.17 29.85 -1.04 -0.32 -0.32
OMPS 5 Climatology 7 28.15 22.95 -3.38 0.00 0.00
OMPS 5 GFS 7 36.71 29.03 -0.81 -0.30 -0.30
OMPS 5 Persistence 7 28.15 22.95 -3.38 0.00 0.00
OMPS 5 TCOscope 7 25.23 19.79 -4.58 0.10 0.10
TROPOMI 2 CAMS 7 37.13 29.70 -0.04 -0.39 -0.39
TROPOMI 2 Climatology 7 26.62 21.45 -3.64 0.00 0.00
TROPOMI 2 GFS 7 34.17 26.88 -0.99 -0.28 -0.28
TROPOMI 2 Persistence 7 26.62 21.45 -3.64 0.00 0.00
TROPOMI 2 TCOscope 7 18.67 14.69 0.28 0.30 0.30
TROPOMI 3 CAMS 7 36.15 28.93 -0.56 -0.36 -0.36
TROPOMI 3 Climatology 7 26.62 21.45 -3.64 0.00 0.00
TROPOMI 3 GFS 7 34.77 27.83 -2.61 -0.31 -0.31
TROPOMI 3 Persistence 7 26.62 21.45 -3.64 0.00 0.00
TROPOMI 3 TCOscope 7 19.36 15.30 1.42 0.27 0.27
TROPOMI 4 CAMS 7 36.13 28.94 -0.92 -0.36 -0.36
TROPOMI 4 Climatology 7 26.62 21.45 -3.64 0.00 0.00
TROPOMI 4 GFS 7 35.34 28.55 -0.46 -0.33 -0.33
TROPOMI 4 Persistence 7 26.62 21.45 -3.64 0.00 0.00
TROPOMI 4 TCOscope 7 20.96 16.40 0.18 0.21 0.21
TROPOMI 5 CAMS 7 34.69 27.89 -1.30 -0.30 -0.30
TROPOMI 5 Climatology 7 26.62 21.45 -3.64 0.00 0.00
TROPOMI 5 GFS 7 34.69 27.41 -1.07 -0.30 -0.30
TROPOMI 5 Persistence 7 26.62 21.45 -3.64 0.00 0.00
TROPOMI 5 TCOscope 7 23.81 18.46 -4.84 0.11 0.11
Площадь, обнаружение и амплитуда экстремума, T+3
source system n_dates area_mae_km2 area_bias_km2 min_tco_mae_du max_tco_mae_du precision recall iou f1
OMI CAMS 7 511575.98 52470.51 16.77 18.56 0.04 0.04 0.02 0.04
OMI Climatology 7 515635.82 -515635.82 21.33 122.17 — 0.00 0.00 0.00
OMI GFS 7 344823.43 -189820.79 21.04 17.49 0.07 0.04 0.03 0.05
OMI Persistence 7 515635.82 -515635.82 44.13 29.93 — 0.00 0.00 0.00
OMI TCOscope 7 460533.45 -405921.75 33.65 26.98 0.06 0.01 0.01 0.02
OMPS CAMS 7 395769.36 96071.25 18.45 15.19 0.03 0.04 0.02 0.04
OMPS Climatology 7 487087.18 -487087.18 26.53 118.98 — 0.00 0.00 0.00
OMPS GFS 7 223832.19 -144421.99 17.85 16.69 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.01
OMPS Persistence 7 487087.18 -487087.18 47.07 26.74 — 0.00 0.00 0.00
OMPS TCOscope 7 426647.02 -365717.23 33.28 20.84 0.31 0.08 0.07 0.12
TROPOMI CAMS 7 383544.76 86647.84 17.23 19.80 0.02 0.03 0.01 0.02
TROPOMI Climatology 7 496510.60 -496510.60 19.72 123.71 — 0.00 0.00 0.00
TROPOMI GFS 7 274233.08 -153845.41 17.03 21.34 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.01
TROPOMI Persistence 7 496510.60 -496510.60 43.58 27.70 — 0.00 0.00 0.00
TROPOMI TCOscope 7 420272.88 -375140.64 20.47 25.57 0.34 0.08 0.07 0.13
Полные scores эпизода
source system n n_dates rmse mae bias centered_rmse pearson anomaly_correlation skill_persistence skill_climatology
OMI CAMS 29685 7 39.29 31.78 -8.13 38.44 0.54 0.61 0.16 0.53
OMI Climatology 29685 7 84.24 75.05 -72.81 42.35 -0.15 — -0.79 0.00
OMI GFS 29685 7 37.84 30.73 -2.39 37.77 0.52 0.59 0.20 0.55
OMI Persistence 29685 7 47.01 36.57 -2.41 46.95 0.20 0.35 0.00 0.44
OMI TCOscope 29685 7 27.04 21.69 -0.39 27.04 0.73 0.77 0.42 0.68
OMPS CAMS 30135 7 29.29 23.44 -8.72 27.96 0.77 0.80 0.34 0.65
OMPS Climatology 30135 7 84.89 75.09 -72.71 43.82 -0.13 — -0.91 0.00
OMPS GFS 30135 7 28.29 22.62 -2.95 28.14 0.75 0.78 0.36 0.67
OMPS Persistence 30135 7 44.35 34.17 -2.92 44.25 0.33 0.45 0.00 0.48
OMPS TCOscope 30135 7 19.00 14.80 -0.84 18.99 0.90 0.91 0.57 0.78
TROPOMI CAMS 30135 7 30.38 24.06 -15.48 26.14 0.79 0.82 0.32 0.66
TROPOMI Climatology 30135 7 90.35 80.70 -79.46 43.01 -0.13 — -1.03 0.00
TROPOMI GFS 30135 7 28.28 22.44 -9.70 26.57 0.77 0.80 0.36 0.69
TROPOMI Persistence 30135 7 44.42 33.98 -9.67 43.36 0.34 0.46 0.00 0.51
TROPOMI TCOscope 30135 7 19.61 15.77 -7.60 18.07 0.90 0.91 0.56 0.78

Состав пакета

events.csv/json — каталог; protocol.json — замороженный протокол; eligibility.csv — доступность; daily_event_candidates.csv — все кандидаты; paired_cases.csv — суммы для независимого пересчёта; metrics_by_event/by_lead/by_year_kind.csv — scores; daily_change_metrics.csv — ошибки суточного прироста; bootstrap.csv — парные интервалы; event_geometry.csv и geometry_metrics.csv — площади, минимумы/максимумы, precision/recall/IoU/F1; peak_timing.csv — сдвиг пика внутри окна и флаги границ; station_cases.csv — станционные совпадения; station_balanced_metrics.csv — равные веса станций; station_metadata_audit.csv — координаты; inter_sensor_metrics.csv — различия спутников; coverage.csv — пропуски; manifests и SHA256 — происхождение; figures/ — PNG; код и тесты — в code/.

Полные входные архивы, GRIB и поля не включены в переносимый ZIP. Их пути и контрольные суммы сохранены; они остаются в локальном рабочем каталоге. Все иллюстрации встроены в этот HTML, поэтому он открывается отдельно.